Good morning. A frontal passage moves through the area tonight with accumulating snow tomorrow morning on its backside. Expect a few inches of snow for most to accumulate during tomorrows morning rush hour. General accumulation amounts of 1-3" can be expected.
We then still have to watch the weekend for storm development. Chances of this storm occurring have DECREASED last 24 hours but we are not out of the woods yet. I will explain below.
Starting with tomorrow mornings frontal passage, snow is projected to move in before daybreak...
Above is radar projected at 7am. Initial rain for some to south changes to snow by daybreak. The snow will linger till early afternoon. Given its timing, it will have rush hour impacts.
Not enough to warrant my own accumulation map but I like this models projection of amounts below...
As you can see a healthy band of 1-3". 3 inch amounts I would favor in the higher elevations to the northwest.
Moving on, cold air takes hold as we head into the weekend. As of now most model guidance keeps the weekend storm threat out to sea. I would not count this 100% out yet. We have see all winter storms trend west at the last second. If that happens this time, then we will be talking a snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic up to Southern New England.
The only model still insisting this can come more inland is the European...
An outlier solution. Taking a look at model ensembles, the other models despite out to sea, do have some ensemble members flirting with a track closer to the coast.
It will all comes down to how the models handle the northern and southern piece of short wave energy. If the energy is more strung out there is not much to talk about. If it starts trending more amplified next 24 hours then we need to watch for impacts in the Mid-Atlantic.
For storm development we need to see the energy in the circle to the north go sharper and the energy in the circle to the south to eject out faster and not be as strung out.
I will evaluate trends today and if I think this has merit I will start to jump on it tomorrow. For now, we just need to be patient.
More later.
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