The purpose of this blog is to share with friends and people of the community not so much day to day forecasts, but my take of major winter weather situations as they evolve particularly on the East Coast. Although I am not a meteorologist by trade, I have become a self educated forecaster over the last ten years learning to use the same exact modeling and tools that every meteorologist on TV, radio, etc. utilize. I became inspired to develop this blog for two reasons:
1. To share my interest in this field with others
2. More importantly to utilize all of the resources I have to increase awareness and understanding of how and when major winter events can/will evolve
By nature public sector meteorologist such as those at the National Weather Service are very conservative and in most cases do not go out on a limb and create a forecast a few days out and stick to it. Sometimes they will discuss the "potential" for such events but those opinions are embedded within advanced forecast discussions that the average person does not read. Instead they adjust their forecasts with every run of the modeling and in many cases are not fully on top of a winter weather situation until 24-48 hours before the event. I call this nowcasting. Because of this, it is my goal to discuss the evolution of potential major weather events days before they become a certainty and give my reasoning as to how and why I believe they will unfold. My opinions will be formed based on my interpreting of the day to day weather modeling, large scale climate patterns, and input from a few select private sector meteorologists I have followed over the years whose understanding and knowledge trump that of the average forecaster. I will be the first to admit not all my predictions will always come to fruition, but if I am able to make people aware of a potential event days ahead of the local weather service a majority of the time, this blog will be a success.It also will teach people the basic climatology of how major winter storms form.
This blog will be active year round.