WINTER OUTLOOK 2023 IS NOW LIVE

The 2023 Winter Outlook

Saturday, November 27, 2021

Saturday Update: Winter is Here, Snow Flakes Start Falling

 Good morning. I hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving. Our weather pattern has made an abrupt change and winter is now here. Snow is currently falling in the Mountains of New England this morning, where areas like Stowe can see up to 20 inches as a low pressure system spins off the coast of Maine.

For other areas, it is a very cold and blustery weekend. Light snow will fall tomorrow from PA into NNJ and likely accumulate a little in areas like interior Mass. Heading into next week, our cold pattern continues with multiple shots at light snow in New England and the potential for something bigger 7-10 days out.

Lets take a look...

Very cold windy conditions in the Northeast today with storm offshore causing mountain effect snows over New England...





Tomorrow afternoon a very weak clipper low pressure system moves in and light snow will fall from PA into Northern NJ and New England...




For NW NJ up to a coating can fall, for areas like NW CT into interior Mass I can see 1-2 inches from this falling tomorrow.

The cold pattern then continues through all of next week with multiple clipper systems giving the chance at more light snow...



The cold air is being seeded by NW Canada and will continue to flow in all week. As we get to next weekend we will have to watch for something bigger to develop as the jet stream can amplify on Saturday into Sunday...




Stay tuned, more to come.


Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Tuesday: Thanksgiving Outlook, Colder Weather Takes Hold

 Good morning. Our weather pattern per my last post is evolving as expected. Very cold air over the region now  will give way to slightly warmer conditions Thanksgiving day. Colder air then arrives again for this weekend into next week. Snow will start falling near the Great Lakes and in mountain areas of New England this weekend. 

In term of any snowfall closer to the coast, I think we can see snow showers early next week as an upper level low spins over the area. There is a small outside chance a storm system could develop around Monday, but that is pure speculation for now. Regardless, winter is here.

Stay tuned will have another post this week as details become more clear. 

Friday, November 19, 2021

Friday Weather Update: Taking a Look at Thanksgiving Week

Good morning. Normal posting frequency for the winter season is starting. Expect a few posts a week discussing the evolving weather pattern.

Today I want to briefly touch on Thanksgiving week. The weather will be a little bit of a roller coaster with back and forth weather conditions.

In summary, we will see cold air take hold into this weekend, back off for a day or two then reestablish its self mid week. Thanksgiving may be a little warmer but then things cool down again next weekend. In terms of storms, we have a big frontal system that moves through on Monday that can cause New England mountain snows, then my eyes are on late next weekend for a storm to develop. More below.

Cold air takes hold through Saturday before a brief warmup Sunday. Lows on Saturday morning will be in the 20's in many spots...



Warmer air arrives Sunday ahead of a big frontal system on Monday that sweeps through the area...



There is a blocking pattern in place so as this swings through the ski areas of New England can see some upslope mtn snows on Tuesday as the low pressure sits off the coast. Expect colder than normal conditions for other areas with the chance at snow flurries/showers.

Things then get more seasonable for Thanksgiving ahead of a potential storm system late next weekend into early the following week. This is very far off so now things will get speculative. What I am watching is a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere evolve. What this means is high pressure over Greenland could cause the jet stream to get clogged up and energy to consolidate along the east coast...



What you see above is what im talking about. Red areas are high pressure, blue are lower pressures. If and this is a big if, we see things come together correctly, a storm could develop somewhere in the eastern 1/3 late next weekend. If on the other hand this pattern breaks down, then nothing will occur.

Just some speculation for now but I will keep an eye on it. Stay tuned. 

Tuesday, November 2, 2021

Cold Air Takes Hold, Winter Can Arrive by End of Month

 More to come but we currently have chilly weather settling into the region next few days. Expect a hard freeze in many areas off the coast at night.

Things will warm up again next week before we see our next shot at cold weather second half of November. The projected pattern below looks very wintery if it holds through early December.


Stay tuned.