6am Update: Ice Region-Wide, Snow to the North

Good morning. Temps are below freezing NW of I-95 with freezing rain falling currently. This storm is colder than modeled at the surface but a little warmer aloft. This is why we are seeing more freezing rain vs sleet in areas like NNJ. Regardless, it is an icy mess out there especially in NNJ. At my house currently we have 0.5" of ice (including sleet).

Here are current temperatures, the purple line is freezing. This is more south vs what was expected at this time...

The surface and pavement will warm above freezing soon for lower lying areas near NYC etc but for areas to the NW especially higher elevations the freezing rain will continue all morning.

To the far north a snowstorm is underway with several inches of snow already being reported. 

Here is the current radar...

The batch of pink (freezing rain) will be moving into the area soon from PA to add to the ice. Expect this to last through the morning.

The simulated model radar below shows this...

As I mentioned biggest concern through the rest of morning is NW NJ NE PA etc at higher elevations where colder temps will hold on.

Stay safe out there. 

7pm Update: Forecast on Track, Play by Play Video

Forecast from this morning appears to be on track. I share how this storm will evolve in the video below. Next update will be early tomorrow morning.  

Thursday Update: Final Forecast & Evolution of Tonight's Storm

Good morning. Below is my final forecast for tonight into Friday's storm. I tried to put more detail into the map and isolate different impact areas. The storm moves in late tonight and the ice is at its worst through tomorrow morning. It will taper off by tomorrow afternoon. Overall for anyone NW-I95 this will be a nasty ice event with all snow to our far north.

Here is my final forecast, there will be a video update at 7pm tonight:

 

Summary:

• Storm approaches the region late tonight with an initial burst of snow in areas of the orange zones and freezing rain in pink zone.
• snow can accumulate a few inches before it changes to sleet in orange zones

• As we enter the overnight hours, the snow will change to sleet in the orange zones and freezing rain in the purple zones.

• By daybreak, ice is accumulating in the purple and orange zones with a transition to rain in the pink zone. Heavy snow is breaking out to the far north

• Storm then tapers off by early afternoon with light freezing rain for all interior areas in orange and purple zones

• For the Green zone, this is mostly a rain event

Lets take a look at model projections. My forecast is based on more than one model, but this is still a good representation...

The storm moves in just before midnight with snow to the north and ice to the south...

By daybreak Friday, ice is working its way into all areas NW of I-95 with snow to the north. This is where folks in NW NJ etc will hear sleet outside...

It is snowing heavy across New England at this time.

By mid morning, a nasty mix of freezing rain and sleet continues NW of I-95 with a transition to rain in areas closer to the coasts in NJ...

Storm then starts to taper off by early afternoon...

There are still some small details to work out with this system. We will have plenty of cold air out ahead, which means the ice part is pretty locked in. How far south the initial burst of snow gets however is still unclear. Some models have accumulating snow hitting all of NNJ tonight while others show sleet with snow more north.

I left the orange zone in 2-4" given the fact I think there can be some initial front end snow and then heavy sleet.

It will all come down to how the models are handling this cold high pressure system ahead of the storm (supplies cold air)...

If by tonight we see the nose of that high (seem in brown and dark red) further south than what you see modeled above, then we have the shot for a little more front end snow.

Stay tuned. I will have a video update tonight at 7pm. 

Wednesday Night Update: Forecast on Track, Final Update Tomorrow AM

Good evening. Forecast appears to be on track from my map released this morning. The timing of this is very late Thursday night through Friday morning. 

For the orange zone, I expect an initial burst of snow late Thursday night changing to sleet. Accumulations of 3-6" include snow and sleet. For the pink zone this is mostly freezing rain to plain rain on the southern edges. For blue zones its all snow. Storm is over by Friday afternoon for many. 

I will have a play by play evolution of the storm out at 8am tomorrow morning with final map.

Wednesday Morning Update: Winter Storm to Impact the Region Friday

A winter storm will impact the region Thursday night into Friday. Below is my updated map on this event. Stay tuned for detailed commentary tonight at 7pm.

Tuesday Night Update: First Call Map for Thursday Night-Friday

Good evening. Below is my first call map for Thursday night into Friday. This is a general idea and I will get more specific as time goes on. Preliminary forecasts are subject to change if necessary. 

I will share more details in tomorrow mornings update. Overall, I expect a front end thump of snow in orange zone before a changeover to sleet/freezing rain. The pink zone is mostly freezing rain. The green zone is mostly rain.

See you in the morning. 

 

Tuesday Update: Winter Storm for Many on Friday

 Good morning. Quick post today as I am pretty busy. I want to however give my first thoughts on a winter storm that will impact the region on Thursday night into Friday. At this time it looks like some front end snow north of I-78 changing to ice (sleet/freezing rain) with all snow in New England off the coasts. For areas further south (CNJ, etc.), at this time I am thinking an initial period of sleet and freezing rain changing to plain rain by Friday. I think the I-78 benchmark will be a good indicator here in terms of impacts.

I am going to put together an initial threat map tonight. For now here is a very very rough sketch of what I expect...

Enough cold air will be in place ahead of this storm system to allow an initial period of accumulating snow in areas like NW NJ into S New England. For areas more south I think this starts as sleet. Ice then takes over for all areas north of  I-78 with rain to the south. I will note areas near Phili etc see some initial wintery precip before this changes to rain.

Models show this nicely starting late Thursday night in first frame...

Stay tuned. Sorry for the quick post. I will have another post out tonight around 7pm with more detail.

Saturday Update: Snow Squalls Today, Winter Storm Potential Friday

Good morning. Winter has returned as of this morning with cold air in place across the region. Believe it or not even colder air along an Arctic front arrives this afternoon and bring with it snow squalls. We then warm up again early next week before a return to winter again with a storm shot on Friday.

Lets take a look...

Arctic front moves in by early to mid afternoon with snow squalls along it. Think of snow squalls like winter thunderstorms, they are very intense brief periods of snowfall. 

You can see on the projected radar below how these can set up today...

Notice how this looks like a line of thunderstorms in the summer. They will come in fast and not last long but be intense later today.

We then have very cold air take hold for tonight and tomorrow morning before a return to mild weather and rain early next week.

Winter then looks to make a bold return end of this week through early March. Our first shot at a storm system will be on Friday as a low pressure system will ride along a frontal boundary with very cold air on its western side....

This looks to be a major storm. 

It will all depend on where the boundary sets up as to who sees rain and who sees snow. At this time I would put everyone in NNJ, CPA and northward as having the shot for a large winter storm on Friday. If this shifts more north then it would be more of a New England type of event. Based on the data I am looking at however, I think there is a shot at frozen precip (snow or mix) north of rt 78.

Stay tuned. I will be covering this daily. 

Wednesday Update: False Spring Arrives Before an Active Start to March

 Good morning. We are about to enter a mild period weather wise over the next 10 days or so. This will feel like spring for many but do not be fooled, mother nature has one more trick up her sleeve for this winter. Recent signal's have suggested March comes in on the cooler and stormier side this year. This could mean we see one more wintery period as we enter March.

Warm air is moving into the air now and will lock in ahead of an approaching storm system Thursday night. This storm will produce rain and gusty winds through Friday...

Cooler conditions then temporarily take hold this weekend before another surge of warmth moves in for next week...

This will feel like spring with highs in 50's and 60s. 

As we approach the end of next week, things then show signs of turning back to cold and stormy...

A big ridge or rise in the jet stream is projected to occur over western Canada. This will drive in colder air into the eastern 1/3 of the country by late next weekend. At the same time we have resistance from warmer air to the southeast. This will setup an active storm track that will be wintery on the cold side.

Bottom line, winter is not over by any means along the east coast. Enjoy the upcoming false spring. 

Saturday Morning Update: Snow Moves in Early Tomorrow, 1-3"

Good morning. It will not be a big storm by any means but very cold air moves in tonight with snow behind it Sunday morning. This will be a good opportunity to enjoy the spring day today. 

A weak wave of low pressure will move in very early tomorrow morning and bring with it light snow for most areas. Due to the fact the pavement is pretty warm, I do not expect much of an issue with the roads. Most of the accumulations will be on non paved surfaces.

It is not enough snow to make my own snow map but I like this model output below for best idea of accumulations...

This is the European ensemble printout. It does a good job showing where I think the swath of snow will be. Most places see around 1-3" with locally more some spots especially far east New England.

In terms of timing, snow arrives just after midnight...

By daybreak  we have some accumulations on the ground...

The snow tapers off in New England by early afternoon...

Again, no major impacts but this could be a nice little event in spots.

Things then stay on the colder side the first half of next week before a big weekend warmup. Winter is not over yet but we are seeing signs of spring. As goes with every year, we are never out of the woods till mid March. 

Thursday Update: Not Much to Add, Watching Another 24 Hours

Good morning. Not much to add regarding my post yesterday. There is still the shot something can spin up along the east coast on Sunday. Models have trended but still need to move a little more. Lets see how this looks by tomorrow morning. 

Wednesday Storm Outlook: A Shot Around the 14th

Good morning. Quick post today regarding the next shot at a storm system along the east coast around Valentines day. Nothing is very concrete yet and a lot of factors still need to trend for a storm to materialize. However, there is a chance so I will summarize below. 

The period to watch is around the 14th. Currently I want to show the upper air pattern of the GFS model below and the key features we need to see trend....

Looking above, this is an image of the jet stream pattern and energy (X's) imbedded in the flow. In order to see a storm develop on the 14th, we would need to see those X's consolidate into a condensed area of energy along the east coast. This would spawn a large low pressure/storm system to ride up the coast. The two main factors we would need to see to increase the chances of this happening are the ridge or rise in the jet stream out west to trend stronger, and the ridge or rise in the jet stream in the western Atlantic to trend stronger. If this happens, that energy has a good shot at consolidating into a storm. 

At the surface models are mixed. The GFS shows the storm but its offshore...

The European model ensemble system shows a few scenarios of low pressure that's close to the coast...

Still, there is not enough model support to really jump on this. It will all come down to if the trends I discussed above evolve. I assign a 40/60 shot at this time.

Stay tuned. 

Thursday Storm Update: On Track

Good morning. I am made some final updates to yesterday's forecast seen below. This will be a very heavy snowstorm for interior New England over the next 24 hours with heavy rain changing to ice at the end for areas to the south. Impacts from this storm in the red/pink zone will be Friday morning as temperatures go below freezing, not today. The biggest concern is in the red zone.

Lets take a look. Notice I highlighted a red zone where I think we see the biggest impacts from the ice...

As I mentioned this is all rain today for all areas outside the blue zones. By very late tonight/early tomorrow morning, cold air moves in from the west and rain changes to freezing rain and some sleet for the red then pink zone.

Looking at models you can see the rain for most areas today...

By later tonight the ice line starts to move south (pink)...

By around daybreak tomorrow the freezing rain has advanced into the southern areas. By mid morning you can see projected location of the freezing rain in purple...

This freezing rain will continue into the early afternoon Friday when storm tapers off. Very cold air moves in on the tail of this storm Friday night...

Things then stay cold and dry till our next active period in about 7 to 10 days.

Wednesday Storm Update: Rain to the South, Ice to the NW, Snow to the Far North

 Good morning. I have updated my forecast for tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning's storm system below. Overall I did not change much for where the rain changing to ice will occur. I did however hone in on where the heaviest snow will fall to the far north. This storm system arrives tomorrow morning and lasts till Friday morning. The ice zones do not change to ice till very late tomorrow night or early Friday morning.

Here is my updated forecast:

Summary:

• Storm moves in as light rain tomorrow morning/early tomorrow afternoon as rain for all areas outside blue zones

• Snow starts falling in the mountain areas of New England and will be accumulating throughout the day

• By late Thursday night/early Friday morning the rain will pick up in intensity then change to freezing rain and then sleet for the pink zone west to east. 
• This is where we need to watch for ice accretion especially over the higher terrain of NW NJ NE PA etc.
• To the southeast I think surface temperatures will over just above freezing and stay plain rain

• For the green zone this is a rain storm 
• Areas on the NW fringes can see some ice at the tail end of the storm
• Very cold air rushes in Friday afternoon so need to watch for flash freeze potential

• Storm tapers off by early Friday afternoon

In terms of models some are colder than others, but I believe my map is the best representation of what happens. There will be a final forecast released tomorrow morning. 

Our storm system exists of a setup that involves a mild southwest flow of moisture rich air and cold air pressing from the northwest due to strong high pressure...

By Thursday morning the mild air moves in with rain and snow to the northwest...

The changeover to ice is then debated by the models. Some have the rain holding on longer than others. As of now I like this changeover to occur just after midnight for many in the pink zone...

This will be in the form of freezing rain then sleet towards the end of the storm. The freezing rain could start to accumulate on non treated surfaces. Ice forecasting is extremely difficult so I have up to 0.25" as of now. 

By late morning you can see even the warmer models show the ice line just off the coasts...

This then ends by early Friday afternoon with very cold arctic air moving in by Friday night. Need to watch for freezing areas of water...

Yes those greys are sub zero by Saturday morning. 

Stay tuned, will have some updates tonight and a final forecast out tomorrow. 

Tuesday Update: Watching for Interior Ice and Snow Thursday to Friday

 Good morning. We have another storm system to track for Thursday into Friday. This time it will feature snow to the far north, with rain changing to ice to areas off the coasts. Models are still split on how hard the cold air presses, but I provide my initial thoughts below. Keep in mind this is a preliminary forecast meaning its is an initial estimate and can change. 

Here is a summary:

• Moisture loaded wave of low pressure approaches the area on Thursday
• Initially it will be warm enough for rain in most areas to the south of central New England

• As the moisture approaches the area, a large area of high pressure will start pressing in cold air from the northwest Thursday evening
• This will change the rain to ice for areas off the coast and NW-I95 Thursday night
• At this time I expect we will see freezing rain and sleet
• Good snow storm for ski areas

• The storm will then end as some snow for some areas to the south.

• At this time I am thinking rain for areas east of I-95 and near coasts

• Bitter cold air then is featured for this weekend

Here is a very general threat map I made below:

As you can see I kept things general. No amounts on here yet but I am estimating where I think the ice line sets up as the cold air presses. 

So lets take a look at the overall setup to this storm system.

Cold air in currently in place and will stay in place through Wednesday. By Thursday a wave a low pressure tapping into the sob tropical jet will approach the region...

As this storm approaches, the existing cold air it place will try to hold but should still rise above freezing for many areas. I am showing the GFS model above because I think it is showing the thermals the best. 

By Thursday afternoon, all areas should warm above freezing and a sharp thermal gradient sets up over the region. It is where this gradient sets up what will determine the ice line...

The GFS model is most aggressive with pressing the cold air vs other models. It all comes down to the placement of a very large high pressure system that will try to press from our Northwest as the moisture approaches...

This will filter in very cold air in the lower levels turning the rain to ice for many off the coasts. We still do not know the exact placement of this pressure system and my map reflects how I think this will trend. In any event the GFS shows the ice line forming late Thursday night seen by pink...

Some models are more west but I think given the high pressure will be very strong to the west the press of cold air may be underestimated by some.  The GFS however is still likely overdoing this which is why I am not showing the next frame which presses this ice into CNJ.

In terms of moisture, the moisture flow due to the subtropical jet is very very impressive...

This mean precipitation amounts that will be quite high making this a potential signifigant winter storm Thursday into Friday.

Stay tuned for updates!