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The 2023 Winter Outlook

Wednesday, February 9, 2022

Wednesday Storm Outlook: A Shot Around the 14th

Good morning. Quick post today regarding the next shot at a storm system along the east coast around Valentines day. Nothing is very concrete yet and a lot of factors still need to trend for a storm to materialize. However, there is a chance so I will summarize below. 

The period to watch is around the 14th. Currently I want to show the upper air pattern of the GFS model below and the key features we need to see trend....




Looking above, this is an image of the jet stream pattern and energy (X's) imbedded in the flow. In order to see a storm develop on the 14th, we would need to see those X's consolidate into a condensed area of energy along the east coast. This would spawn a large low pressure/storm system to ride up the coast. The two main factors we would need to see to increase the chances of this happening are the ridge or rise in the jet stream out west to trend stronger, and the ridge or rise in the jet stream in the western Atlantic to trend stronger. If this happens, that energy has a good shot at consolidating into a storm. 

At the surface models are mixed. The GFS shows the storm but its offshore...


The European model ensemble system shows a few scenarios of low pressure that's close to the coast...



Still, there is not enough model support to really jump on this. It will all come down to if the trends I discussed above evolve. I assign a 40/60 shot at this time.


Stay tuned. 

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