Good morning. We have another storm system to track for Thursday into Friday. This time it will feature snow to the far north, with rain changing to ice to areas off the coasts. Models are still split on how hard the cold air presses, but I provide my initial thoughts below. Keep in mind this is a preliminary forecast meaning its is an initial estimate and can change.
Here is a summary:
- Moisture loaded wave of low pressure approaches the area on Thursday
- Initially it will be warm enough for rain in most areas to the south of central New England
- As the moisture approaches the area, a large area of high pressure will start pressing in cold air from the northwest Thursday evening
- This will change the rain to ice for areas off the coast and NW-I95 Thursday night
- At this time I expect we will see freezing rain and sleet
- Good snow storm for ski areas
- The storm will then end as some snow for some areas to the south.
- At this time I am thinking rain for areas east of I-95 and near coasts
- Bitter cold air then is featured for this weekend
Here is a very general threat map I made below:
As you can see I kept things general. No amounts on here yet but I am estimating where I think the ice line sets up as the cold air presses.
So lets take a look at the overall setup to this storm system.
Cold air in currently in place and will stay in place through Wednesday. By Thursday a wave a low pressure tapping into the sob tropical jet will approach the region...
As this storm approaches, the existing cold air it place will try to hold but should still rise above freezing for many areas. I am showing the GFS model above because I think it is showing the thermals the best.
By Thursday afternoon, all areas should warm above freezing and a sharp thermal gradient sets up over the region. It is where this gradient sets up what will determine the ice line...
The GFS model is most aggressive with pressing the cold air vs other models. It all comes down to the placement of a very large high pressure system that will try to press from our Northwest as the moisture approaches...
This will filter in very cold air in the lower levels turning the rain to ice for many off the coasts. We still do not know the exact placement of this pressure system and my map reflects how I think this will trend. In any event the GFS shows the ice line forming late Thursday night seen by pink...
Some models are more west but I think given the high pressure will be very strong to the west the press of cold air may be underestimated by some. The GFS however is still likely overdoing this which is why I am not showing the next frame which presses this ice into CNJ.
In terms of moisture, the moisture flow due to the subtropical jet is very very impressive...
This mean precipitation amounts that will be quite high making this a potential signifigant winter storm Thursday into Friday.
Stay tuned for updates!
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