Weather Pattern Update

I am very bullish on Feb this year and maintain a target period around 14th for a storm. Any warmups that are shown or pacific influence will become more muted or short lived as period approaches.

Impressive -NAO coupled with a polar vortex that continues to be under assault (pic 2) means continued cold. Based on this, models may be struggling over AK and you could end up seeing more ridging vs what's shown below. What you can end up seeing is energy breaking off the pacific and getting clogged up over the central to eastern CONTUS due to major block. With a southern stream also in the mix its a stormy pattern with locked in cold high pressure to north. The NAO in Feb has a lot of influence vs early in season. Also this historic cold stretch we are on lasts through the entire week with consecutive days below freezing. A bitter arctic shot with a clipper system tops its all off next weekend. Translation: Winter is far from over and cold and stormy conditions are expected though Feb. Stay tuned, as we evaluate how my thoughts unfold.

12 PM Storm Update: This Storm is the Real Deal

 

830am Observation Update: Storm is Cranking

 

7pm Update: Play by Play for Tomorrow

 

Good evening. The storm is on our doorstep and the forecast remains on track. In the video below I break down exactly what to expect tomorrow for this powerful winter storm. No changes to last nights final forecast which I also included below. Things get going just after daybreak and will deteriorate fast by late morning/early afternoon. The snow is going to come in hard and fast by this time. Ice mixes in to the south in Delmarva by mid morning turning into a sleet storm. Storm is over by Mon morning.   Enjoy the video, see you in the morning. 

Stay tuned for next update around 7pm

 As of now everything is on track. No changes to my thoughts last night check out the video if you haven't seen it. 

Timing looks to be on track as well. Expect this storm to really move in around daybreak tomorrow. 

10 PM Storm Update: Final Forecast and Play by Play

 Good evening. My updated l forecast is below.. The goal is to not have to change this unless my read on the storm is wrong. This is going to be a major storm. Largest one we've had in 5 years. Here is what you need to know:

We have the coldest air of the season moving in right now. Temperatures are going to drop to almost 0 tonight. It's this Arctic air mass that is really going to make this storm brutal.

Snow should start to move into the area just around daybreak on Sunday with temperatures in the single digits to low teens!

Things will really get cranking late morning through the afternoon. Expect heavy snowfall with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Some sleet can mix in at times especially later in the afternoon. Temperatures never leave the teens all day, so everything that falls out of the sky will be accumulating.

There could be a small break in the storm later on Sunday afternoon into early evening. If this happens the storm is not over yet and things will pick back up later on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The storm should be over by daybreak Monday.

Arctic air that stays over the area for the entire week.

It's going to be a mess out there prepare for big impacts. Basically the entire eastern third of the country is under a Winter Storm Warning. Stay tuned for storm tracking updates.

Stay Tuned, Working on Update...Will be at 10pm

 I am issuing the final forecast to keep everyone ahead of the storm before weekend is underway.