The 2023 Winter Outlook

Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Tuesday: Forecast for Tomorrow

Good morning. Below is my snowfall forecast for tomorrow. Overall, its a non event for most of NJ and any area near a coast. Elevation is key with this system which is why NW NJ is only area I have seeing measurable accumulations. Initial burst of snow arrives by mid morning. I do not expect any big travel impacts in the pink zone.

More in depth analysis tonight.

Sunday, January 22, 2023

Sunday Night Weather Pattern Update: Will Winter Return?

In the video below I discuss the threat of snow for the middle of this week and the long range weather pattern. Many areas north of I-78 can see accumulating snow Wednesday morning. Stay tuned. 

Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Wednesday Update: I Am Forecasting a Big Pattern Flip by Late Jan

 Good morning. Despite the fact we have seen remarkably mild weather over the last several weeks, I see evidence mounting for a big pattern flip by late Jan into February. This is based on a large influencer of the weather pattern- thunderstorm location in the tropical pacific moving into a very favorable location over next several weeks. In addition to this, the polar vortex looks like it will weaken and elongate from its record strength. 

Translation...winter returns last week of January into Feb for the Northeast. Cant say when and if it snows but chances should significantly go up. 

Starting off, here is the projected structure of the polar vortex by end of this week...

Compared to its strong circular shape in late Dec (warm signal)...

In a general sense when you stretch the vortex aligned with the east, it eventually causes a cold response in the atmosphere below within 2 weeks. That brings us to end of January.

In addition, here is current location of thunderstorms in tropics and their expected movement (a major pattern driver)...

Green is T Storms, yellow is stable air. You want to see T Storms not in region I drew the X. My red boxes show where they are expected to go next few weeks. This is a great location. If we look where T. Storms in these locations have caused for the Jet Stream pattern over North America in the past we get this...

Blue is cold.

What is interesting is even though models in late December showed cold for January (big fail). These thunderstorms where not in a favorable spot.

This time, we are currently observing the T. Storm in a great spot plus the Polar Vortex weakening.

So when the long range models now show this for late Jan I we can verify current observations support it...

Give it time. It will stay mild next two weeks but I see great support for winter to return. 

Saturday, January 7, 2023

Saturday Update: Rain Next Weekend, Winter is Off Until End of Month

Good morning. Quick comment- The storm next weekend will be rain for many. The cold air that was supposed to get locked now now appears to leave the region next week. Winter will continue to be on pause until at least the last week of January. Because it has been so extreme in terms of warmth in the east, I do believe winter arrives by Feb as things revert back to the mean.

On Sunday night some light snow moves into the region. Dusting to an inch of snow for spots.

See my twitter feed on righthand pane for more up to date info. 

Stay tuned.

Thursday, January 5, 2023

Thursday Update: Warm as Possible Now, Winter Storm Next Weekend?

Good morning. It could not be much warmer than we have seen for early January. Extremely unusual pattern that will eventually break this weekend. Some flakes can fly up in New England (light) this weekend then all eyes are on a storm threat for around Friday-Saturday of next week.

Despite the fact it has been so warm, remember it still is winter. The atmosphere has a way of balancing itself out. There is a pretty strong signal on models for possible storm development a week out so lets take a look...

Very strong agreement that cold air finally builds back in from Canada this weekend into the middle of next week seen by grey....

I'll use the next image from the other day because I drew on it, but it really hasn't changed since. In the upper atmosphere the jet stream configuration by the time we get to end of next week looks very compelling for storm development...

At the surface most models show a spread of storm locations for next Friday and Saturday...

This shows different possible locations of the storm center. Now in my experience most bigger storm we have had stay south initially in the long range, then trend back north within a few days of the event. At this long lead time this looks to be in a similar spot.

I will be watching this into the weekend. If I start to see favorable trends then we would have a legitimate winter weather threat to track for the east coast. Just know for now the potential is on the table.

Tuesday, January 3, 2023

Happy New Year: Warm Pattern Continues Until Mid Month, Still Can Snow

 Happy New Year! This year has come in with a big mild spell along the east and frequent mountain snowstorms out west. You can thank an active pacific jet stream to this. As we head into the next 10 days, I do expect this milder pattern to continue but then step down to a more winter like pattern by 3rd week of January. In the meantime there will actually still be some shots for flakes to fly starting early next week.

Lets take a quick look...

Pacific jet is strong spraying mild air into the country...

This is due to a variety of factors. Two main factors being the Polar Vortex being very strong and unfavorable thunderstorm location in the tropics. When the Polar Vortex is strong the cold air stays locked up to the north...

Both these factors I just mentioned however I do expect to change by the 2nd half of the month turning our pattern back to winter in the east coast. 

In the meantime, it still can snow. Despite the fact its warmer than normal, its January so it warmer than normal still can be cold enough.

We will see some light snow in New England this weekend, followed but another potential light snowfall further south Sunday...

Then on Sunday a wave tries to come through with a good colder high to its west...

Need to keep an eye on this. When I see higher pressures over the west shore of Hudson Bay Canada it means cold air can be supplied if a wave wants to spin up into a storm...

We then once again, despite a warmer than normal pattern have to watch for low pressure/storm development towards late next week.

Conclusion: The big mild air does subside but it stays warmer than normal though the 15th. Despite this, it still can snow due to a little warmer than normal in January still being cold enough to snow given its the coldest time of the year climatologically. 

Stay tuned. 

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Wednesday Storm Update: Rain Moves in Thursday Night, High Winds, Crashing Temps to Follow

 Good morning. The storm system we discussed will be entering our area on Thursday night. Expect a period of rain and gusty winds followed by crashing temperatures and potential back end snow showers by late Friday morning. Temperatures will go from being in the 40's and 50's during the storm to single digits for some areas by Friday! Winds will really be gusting by tomorrow night so be prepared for this.

Lets take a quick look. Below is the updated evolution of this storm from Thursday night into Friday afternoon...

You can see the heavy rain move in by tomorrow night then notice the cold air and potential snow showers come in at the end.

Look at how much temperatures crash by Friday morning...

This is a true arctic cold front.

In terms of wind, models always overdo wind gusts so take 60% of these numbers. Very high still..

Things then stay cold through Christmas. We need to watch around the 28th for our next storm threat. Stay tuned.