8pm Video Update on Tap

 This storm is going to be major. Expect significant impacts Sunday and Monday.

Friday Update: Winter Storm Gaining Traction Sun-Mon

 Good morning. Things look to be coming towards what we discussed yesterday regarding a major winter storm impacting the region Sun-Mon. There will always be models spreads this far out but the goal of this blog is to make a forecast. Below is my initial idea of what I think happens. Timing is Sunday mid morning to Monday morning.

Most models are all converging on what the American model has been consistent on over the last 24 hours. A powerful storm that tries to tuck into the coast..

Although I am not taking this model verbatim, I think it continues to have best handle on this. 

Expect heavy snow wind and cold as this moves through.

Stay tuned, video out tonight with more details. 

Thursday Update: Storm Chances for Sun to Mon Increasing

Good morning. Despite model uncertainty I think there is a decent shot a winter storm hits Phili to Boston Sun into Mon

Earlier this week I laid out the key factors and discussed we need to evaluate how they trend . First image is a great representation of how these factors have trended from euro ensemble last 48hrs.

Notice one clear thing- wavelength separation as it relates to western ridge, energy over planes and energy out in the Atlantic. If i saw the opposite trend by today I would have backed down. So where does this leave us, do all models show a direct hit? No, they do not. You can see there is still a spread (pic 2).

However, since we are now 3.5 days away I think its appropriate to start to forecast how I think this evolves especially if It can have major impacts. Yes, by doing this there's a risk I end up wrong but the alternative is showing a roulette wheel of maps and model projections next few days. So here is what I am thinking. Given the more accurate models are trending to more wavelength separation, as sampling continues to improve over next 36 hours i think you will see most models trend to the northern shortwave diving in sharper and bundling the energy more (pic 3). This results in a storm that gets pulled closer to the coast at the surface similar to what GFS shows in pic 2.

I will add, once the storm system that will move through New Eng tomorrow departs, I think you will more consistency in models showing this. So bottom line, I expect further NW shifts and a major coastal storm to impact Phili to Boston this weekend. Precipitation type is all snow. No impact maps or amounts yet. If things continue to favor my forecast by tonight we can focus on that.

Wednesday: Eyeing Sunday and Monday

There is a chance of a winter storm Sunday and Monday. As is always the case details need to be worked out if it hits or is out to sea, but I think its a 50% chance as of now. Stay tuned I will share more details on here if it gains more traction next 24 hours. 

Sunday Morning Update: Weaker than I Expected

Good morning. Things have trended weaker vs my forecast and initial expectations. More like 1-2" for some but nothing that causes big impacts. Timing is later Tonight and it's a pure nuisance type event.

Don't like being wrong but things don't look to be tracking my ideas. We'll see what ends up happening. 

Saturday Night: Here is my initial Snowfall Map

Here is my initial snowfall forecast for Sunday night. I will have an update out tomorrow to see if my idea still has merit. 

Snow Storm Possible Sunday Night

 Good morning. I'm not sure who follows me on x on this blog but I've been discussing the shot of accumulating snowfall for Sunday night into Monday. Right now the models are trending more aggressive in line with this idea. It's not locked in yet but my confidence is increasing. I'll share some more details tonight. In the meantime here's my thoughts from a snapshot of one of my posts.