WINTER OUTLOOK 2022 IS NOW LIVE

The 2022 Winter Outlook

Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Offseason Posting Schedule

Good morning. Wanted to provide an update on what to expect from me in the non-winter months. I will remain active on twitter @weatherwilly. In addition, I will be posting on this site anytime there is an expected signifigant weather event such as severe weather, hurricanes, etc. I will also be doing holiday weather forecasts for 4th of July, Labor Day, etc.

Thanks for following. 

Saturday, March 12, 2022

Saturday Morning: Storm Underway, Rain Changes to Snow Later This Morning

 Good morning. Our storm is underway and on track. No changes to my final forecast from last night. Rain is currently moving into the area with snow in the far interior. This rain will change to snow in NE PA NW NJ later this morning and will be heavy at times. Several inches will fall across NW NJ into PA especially across the higher terrain. Very high winds and bitter cold air then come in this storms wake with gusts up to 45mph later tonight into Sunday. Be on the lookout for power outages and fallen tree limbs. 

Current radar shows the snow to the west rain to the east. That snow line crashes east in a few hours...


By roughly around noon the snow is getting into NW NJ and will accumulate...


This lasts a few hours then tapers off to lighter snow by late afternoon. I like the 2-5" amount for NW NJ with maybe areas like highland lakes or high point with 6".

The high winds then move in. These are wind gusts...



Bitter cold follows.

Will check back in later today.

Friday, March 11, 2022

Friday Night Storm Update: Final Forecast

Good evening. I have decided to keep my forecast map consistent from this morning. After today's data, I see no reason to split hairs and change snow amounts. The models are still volatile with the storm so I am going with what I think happens. Rain changes to snow in areas like NW NJ by late morning.

In the quick video below I discuss my latest thoughts...enjoy

  






Friday Update: Complex Winter Storm Approaching

Good morning. We have a complex winter storm that is approaching the region and will have impacts from Saturday morning until Sunday morning. This is initially a rainstorm for many, changing to some snow at the end. Below is my forecast map and summary of the event. I am going to update one more time tonight at 7pm if necessary, so stay tuned as this is a hard forecast. 



Summary:

  • Storm approaches the region late tonight/early Saturday morning.
  • Storm starts as all rain for areas outside dark blue zone
    • the rain will be heavy at times
  • For the dark blue zone this is all snow starting early Saturday morning
    • The ski areas should see at least a foot with this system, especially over central and northern VT
  • The rain will then change to snow in the light blue zone by early Saturday afternoon
    • This is a tricky part of the forecast as it all comes down to the timing of the cold air vs the moisture in the storm
    • Regardless, I think there is a good shot at a few inches Sat afternoon
  • For the light green zone, rain changes to snow but accumulations  more limited. 
  • Very cold air rushes in behind this storm causing flash freezing Saturday night

So as you can see, this is a complex storm. Anytime you have rain changing to snow at the end, there is a lot of room for errors and surprises. Due to this I will put out a final map tonight if necessary. 

In the meantime, lets take a look at the evolution of the storm. The model projection below is from 2am Saturday morning until 10pm Saturday night...



This is just one model projection and can change, but I think it still gives a good overall idea of the storm evolution. Notice late tonight, the snow move into the north and rain to the south. Then notice the snow crash towards the coast by Saturday afternoon. I think this model is overdoing this a little but the point is shown well here, there will be some snow to deal with in areas that initially see heavy rain.

The models have had a very hard time with this system in terms of the timing of the cold air arriving and the position of the surface low along the front. If this storm trends more amplified today, then less snow will fall in my light blue zone. If it trends flatter than a little more snow can fall. At this time I am taking the middle ground.

When this storm pulls out early Sunday morning, high wind gusts and very cold air will take hold. It will feel like a mid January day Sunday.

Things then warm up next week.

Stay tuned for 7pm evening update. 





Wednesday, March 9, 2022

Wednesday: Warm Snowstorm Underway...Big Weekend Interior Snow Threat

Good morning. Our storm is underway as of 7am. Surface temperatures across the region are mostly above freezing outside the higher elevations. This means roads in most places are fine today and any accumulations are only on grass surfaces..

Here is latest radar, notice the surface temperatures...



Snow will last until about mid afternoon with rain to the south. The rain snow line you see above will stay along that axis.

My forecast seems to be on track...



In the wake of this storm things stay calm before another big storm this weekend.

The weekend storm will be mostly rain for many areas with heavy snow into the interior. There is a chance the rain can change to snow at the end for all areas Sunday morning. I am going to be watching this closely over next few days as the storm will be quite large. I will start to share more details on the evolution by tomorrow. 

Here are some model projections from Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning...



As you can see there's a good shot for heavy snow across parts of NY, VT etc. I am still going to be in Northern VT for this so it will be very interesting to watch this evolve.

Stay tuned!

Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Tuesday, March 8th Discussion: Snow Tomorrow, Big Weekend Storm Potential

Good morning. I have been up in VT the last week so posting has been limited. We have a late season snow event on tap tomorrow for some followed by a big storm this weekend with will bring rain possibly changing to snow. 

Summary:

  • A late season winter storm approaches the area by daybreak tomorrow
  • Snow lasts till mid afternoon
  • The focus for accumulating snow is NW of I95 and especially NW NJ into PA.
  • For areas closer to I-95 snow will fall but surface temps will stay warm holding most accumulations to grassy areas
  • My map below reflects this






Let's take a look..

Cold air is currently in place due to a cold front that entered the region last night. A storm will then approach from the southwest along this front late tonight.

By early tomorrow morning snow overspreads the area..




 Although snow should fall all the way down to the I-95 corridor, accumulations on pavement should be limited outside NNJ and especially the higher terrain of NW NJ. This is due to the marginal surface temperatures dunning this storm. Regardless, many will see flakes fly and it will accumulate on grassy surfaces.

By the mid afternoon, the storm starts to wind down over PA and NJ but still is going over New England...


Storm then pulls out of New England by early evening.

In terms of accumulations, this is tricky due to the fact the surface will not be too cold. For example, take a look at the freezing line (grey) tomorrow morning during the storm below. Notice most areas the surface is above freezing...


Snow will still accumulate on the grass areas, but for it to stick to the pavement it needs to come down hard. We will likely have the best chance of this in NW NJ into PA.

Moving on to the weekend, we then have a very large storm to track. At this time, it is rain to snow for many with heavy snow into the far interior. I will have more info on this in the days to come....



Stay tuned. 

Friday, February 25, 2022

6am Update: Ice Region-Wide, Snow to the North

Good morning. Temps are below freezing NW of I-95 with freezing rain falling currently. This storm is colder than modeled at the surface but a little warmer aloft. This is why we are seeing more freezing rain vs sleet in areas like NNJ. Regardless, it is an icy mess out there especially in NNJ. At my house currently we have 0.5" of ice (including sleet).

Here are current temperatures, the purple line is freezing. This is more south vs what was expected at this time...


The surface and pavement will warm above freezing soon for lower lying areas near NYC etc but for areas to the NW especially higher elevations the freezing rain will continue all morning.

To the far north a snowstorm is underway with several inches of snow already being reported. 

Here is the current radar...


The batch of pink (freezing rain) will be moving into the area soon from PA to add to the ice. Expect this to last through the morning.

The simulated model radar below shows this...


As I mentioned biggest concern through the rest of morning is NW NJ NE PA etc at higher elevations where colder temps will hold on.

Stay safe out there.