Good morning. Things have trended weaker vs my forecast and initial expectations. More like 1-2" for some but nothing that causes big impacts. Timing is later Tonight and it's a pure nuisance type event.
Don't like being wrong but things don't look to be tracking my ideas. We'll see what ends up happening.
Here is my initial snowfall forecast for Sunday night. I will have an update out tomorrow to see if my idea still has merit.
Good morning. I'm not sure who follows me on x on this blog but I've been discussing the shot of accumulating snowfall for Sunday night into Monday. Right now the models are trending more aggressive in line with this idea. It's not locked in yet but my confidence is increasing. I'll share some more details tonight. In the meantime here's my thoughts from a snapshot of one of my posts.
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I am very bullish on Feb this year and maintain a target period around 14th for a storm. Any warmups that are shown or pacific influence will become more muted or short lived as period approaches.
Impressive -NAO coupled with a polar vortex that continues to be under assault (pic 2) means continued cold. Based on this, models may be struggling over AK and you could end up seeing more ridging vs what's shown below. What you can end up seeing is energy breaking off the pacific and getting clogged up over the central to eastern CONTUS due to major block. With a southern stream also in the mix its a stormy pattern with locked in cold high pressure to north. The NAO in Feb has a lot of influence vs early in season. Also this historic cold stretch we are on lasts through the entire week with consecutive days below freezing. A bitter arctic shot with a clipper system tops its all off next weekend. Translation: Winter is far from over and cold and stormy conditions are expected though Feb. Stay tuned, as we evaluate how my thoughts unfold.
Good evening. The storm is on our doorstep and the forecast remains on track. In the video below I break down exactly what to expect tomorrow for this powerful winter storm. No changes to last nights final forecast which I also included below. Things get going just after daybreak and will deteriorate fast by late morning/early afternoon. The snow is going to come in hard and fast by this time. Ice mixes in to the south in Delmarva by mid morning turning into a sleet storm. Storm is over by Mon morning. Enjoy the video, see you in the morning.
