Winter Storm Outlook

**********WINTER OUTLOOK 2021 IS NOW LIVE....CLICK HERE TO VIEW!!**********

Thursday, September 2, 2021

Historic Storm Last Night...Horrible Flooding in Areas

 Ida is gone, but it has left its mark. In Randolph NJ I reported 5.7" of rain with max rainfall rates of 1.3" per hour. I also had a wind gust of 47mph. Just to my southeast however much more impactful. Major flooding with parts of towns underwater including NYC. Up to 8" of rain fell.  We also had a destructive tornado in CNJ that looked like a scene out of Oklahoma.

Weather now gets very nice through the weekend. A fall like crisp will be in the air. Enjoy!

Wednesday, September 1, 2021

Wednesday: Very Heavy Rain Through Tonight, Flooding in Areas

 Good morning. The remnants of hurricane Ida are moving toward the area this morning and will pack quite the punch. The atmosphere is loaded with moisture and there will be strong dynamics to support very heavy rainfall across the area. Given the soil is saturated and rivers are already very high, flooding will happen in spots. When it's all said and done expect 3 to 6 inches of rain NW of I 95 and locally more in spots.


The National Weather Service has a flood advisory...





Current radar shows a warm front associated with approaching Ida causing a front end band of rain to move into the area. This over running rain will last throughout the day and will become heavy at times...



We have very moist air in place running into cooler air to our north. This assent of air causes lift and rain to occur. Ida is still behind all of this and moves in later tonight as seen by the very intense rain projected below...



This image is valid 10pm tonight. This is where things can get very intense from a rainfall and winf perspective. This is the core of Idas remnants. Expect very very heavy rainfall and Gusty winds up to 35 mph. This is where the flooding concern can really become an issue as the rainfall rates will be extreme at times.


Here are projected wind gusts at this time..




This is over by tomorrow morning. When it is all said and done here is what some models are showing for total rainfall. The numbers look like a snowstorm...

Nam model..


GFS model..



European...



As you can see, very high rainfall is projected. There will be a narrow band that sees over 5 inches somewhere from NW NJ into PA and southern New England.


Stay tuned. Will be on Twitter as this unfolds.

Saturday, August 21, 2021

Saturday Night Storm Update: Henri Making Its Final Approach

 Good evening. We can now narrow down the finer details of Hurricane Henri. The latest data keeps the storm a little weaker but still tracks it into eastern Long Island/Rhode Island as it makes a left turn into the mainland and weakens it from a hurricane to a tropical storm. The biggest impacts will be at the immediate coasts with costal flooding and high wind gusts. At this time it does not look like Henri will stay hurricane status before impact (75MPH+ winds). Regardless, there will still be big impacts for some.

Here is updated NHC forecast...



Notice the center of the cone is the large impacts with the winds that will gust over 50mph and storm surge.

The storm currently sits just off the coast of VA and is trying to strengthen...



Not the most impressive looking system ive seen but it still will pack a punch.

Here is expected tropical storm force wind probabilities (39mph plus sustained)...



Storm makes landfall early tomorrow morning...



Areas near the center of that eye will see the strongest winds along the immediate coast. To the west its a soaking rain all day with gusty winds at times.

By the afternoon notice the storm gets pulled west...



Heavy rain becomes the threat in NJ NY etc tomorrow. Several inches could fall...

There continues to be a model spread in terms of rain placement. The GFS has a narrower swath of rain...



The NAM model tugs it much more west into NJ with soaking rains...



I think we split the difference here. 


The storm is over by tomorrow night. In its wake expect to see most damage from flooding at the coasts where that eye hits and stacks up water along the shorelines.


Good thing this isn't going to hit as a stronger storm or it would be devastating. 


We will see how this looks by morning. 

Friday, August 20, 2021

Hurricane Henri to Impact Northeast Sunday

 Good evening. It has been a while since my last post but we got a big weather situation on tap for later this weekend. Tropical Storm Henri is currently sitting off of the east coast of the United States and is forecasted to move north than make a turn towards the Long Island area. The model solutions have been quite spread last few days, but now they are starting to converge on this Long Island solution. It has been a long time since we have had a hurricane hit this region and its safe to say we are overdue. If things pan out as expected, we can see major coastal flooding issues and damage from this storm. 

Lets take a look...

Here is satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Henri...



It is currently a tropical storm and is forecasted to potentially reach a category 1 or 2 Hurricane status right before it makes Landfall Sunday.

Here is National Hurricane Center forecast....



This storm was initially tracking to hit Cape Cod or just to the east but over the last 24 hours some key things have happened to cause all the models to show this storm making the left turn. All major models are now showing this...


GFS...



European...


North American Model...



You can see how these model are showing landfall somewhere between central Long Island to Eastern CT and RI.

There still is quite the degree of spread however as some models show a more west track then what is even seen here...



Above are the hurricane model forecast track spread for the storm. Notice that western cluster. The next 24 hours will be key to determine if those more western solutions have merit. What we would need to see is the storm start to strengthen more rapidly which would support that western solution. 

This whole storm track comes down to what is going on in the upper atmosphere. We currently have a blocking pattern in place with high pressure to the north steering this storm towards the coast and a trough incoming from the west that is helping capture and pull the storm in...



A better way of showing this is the animation below. Notice how the red or high pressure to the north is trending stronger which helps push the storm more west...



At this time I think this hits the center of Long Island. The more westward solution can happen but sometimes these models over estimate the strength of the storm. I also think this hits as at least a category 1 Hurricane with sustained winds 75mph plus and very bad coastal flooding. This is a situation to take very seriously. 

Here is the projected tropical storm wind coverage on Sunday (above 39mph sustained)...





Do not be surprised to see this shift a little bit more west.


Stay tuned. Tomorrow morning I will have a more impact specific post as we finitize this track. 

Hurricane to Likely Impact New England Sunday

 Will have a write up with details later this afternoon.

Thursday, July 8, 2021

Tropical Storm Elsa Approaching the Area

 Good morning. It's been quite a while since I've posted but now that we have a tropical storm in coming this is timely. I will keep it brief but you can follow my Twitter feed on the right with storm updates later this afternoon through tomorrow morning. 

For most folks off the immediate coasts, this is going to be thunderstorms this afternoon followed by heavy rain and Gusty winds tonight ending sometime tomorrow morning. On the immediate coasts, we have tropical storm warnings. This means some damaging winds are possible in spots and coastal flooding. This isn't a major hurricane but it's going to pack a punch.


Here our latest tropical storm wind probabilities from the national hurricane Center...



This basically means winds can be sustained above 40 mph in spots in the center of that cone. I would expect winds will gust higher than this locally in some coastal spots.


Ahead of the main storm there will be a lot of instability in the atmosphere so we'll see thunderstorms develop this afternoon. These storms can pack a punch...



You can see above the storms developing over the Mid-Atlantic by middle afternoon with the main storm to the south over Delmarva.


By tonight the core the storm moves through and lasts into tomorrow morning this is where the heavy rains and Gusty winds move in...



This clears out tomorrow morning for most spots.


When it's all said and done I would expect one to three inches of rain with locally more and some minor damage and localized coastal areas.


That's all for now, more tonight.

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Wednesday: Major Late Season New England Mountain Snowstorm on Tap

A late season signifigant mountain snowstorm will impact the Northeast Thursday night through Friday. Most of the accumulating snow should be confined to mountain areas above 1500ft with the most amounts above 2000ft. Expect very little snow and mostly rain for low lying areas. As the storm pulls away it is possible flakes will fly in areas of Mass, CT, and Maine.

Lets take a look...


A closed low/vortex at 18000ft will be approaching New England Thursday. This vortex is bringing with it very cold air aloft....



As this approaches, moisture from the southern jet stream also works it way towards the region from the south...


Due to a big blocking pattern in place (high pressure over Greenland), the flow slows down and these two systems combine and form a coastal storm...



Notice above how the model tries to show it only snowing in higher elevation areas. This makes sense. When you get these very late season storms, even though it is cold enough aloft to snow, the air near the surface is still pretty warm. Due to this, the mountains get all the snow as they are higher up thus colder at the surface. 

The European model shows this well with a nice accumulating snow event in the Catskills, Green, Berkshires, Adirondack and White Mountains...


In other areas that are not truly mountains but higher sitting such as NW CT, Central Mass, flakes can fly, but i do not expect much accumulating snow. 


When it is all said and done I think the highest peaks (3000ft+) can see 8 to 14 inches like this. This means Killington Ski area can do quite well.


Stay tuned.