Good morning. Despite model uncertainty I think there is a decent shot a winter storm hits Phili to Boston Sun into Mon
Earlier this week I laid out the key factors and discussed we need to evaluate how they trend . First image is a great representation of how these factors have trended from euro ensemble last 48hrs.
Notice one clear thing- wavelength separation as it relates to western ridge, energy over planes and energy out in the Atlantic. If i saw the opposite trend by today I would have backed down. So where does this leave us, do all models show a direct hit? No, they do not. You can see there is still a spread (pic 2).
However, since we are now 3.5 days away I think its appropriate to start to forecast how I think this evolves especially if It can have major impacts. Yes, by doing this there's a risk I end up wrong but the alternative is showing a roulette wheel of maps and model projections next few days. So here is what I am thinking. Given the more accurate models are trending to more wavelength separation, as sampling continues to improve over next 36 hours i think you will see most models trend to the northern shortwave diving in sharper and bundling the energy more (pic 3). This results in a storm that gets pulled closer to the coast at the surface similar to what GFS shows in pic 2.
I will add, once the storm system that will move through New Eng tomorrow departs, I think you will more consistency in models showing this. So bottom line, I expect further NW shifts and a major coastal storm to impact Phili to Boston this weekend. Precipitation type is all snow. No impact maps or amounts yet. If things continue to favor my forecast by tonight we can focus on that.
