Weather Willy's Official 2026–27 Winter Outlook

Why This Winter Is Different

This fall's El Niño is at record levels by ocean temperature. September's Niño-3.4 reading came in at +2.84°C, the highest monthly value since 1982. (One note for the weather folks: the official ONI is not a record yet.)

A strong El Niño usually means a mild winter across the northern US. The classic example is 1997–98, which went down as the 6th-warmest Northeast winter on record. That's why so much of the seasonal consensus is leaning warm this year.

This year, I'm leaning against that warm consensus. El Niño isn't the only thing steering the pattern, and several of the other big players look very different from 1997. Here's why.

The Drivers Behind My Forecast

• The PDO is firmly negative. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a long-lived pattern of ocean temperatures in the North Pacific. It came in at −1.55 in September. That's a big difference from 1997, and it changes how El Niño's influence plays out over North America.
• The QBO is a near match to fall 1957. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is the back-and-forth of the winds high above the tropics in the stratosphere. It affects how stable or disrupted the polar vortex gets during winter. This fall's setup is a near match to 1957.
• The polar vortex is running slightly weak. The polar vortex is the ring of strong winds that keeps the coldest air locked up near the North Pole. Right now it's slightly weak, and models are forecasting a wave-2 displacement toward Hudson Bay around Halloween. That means the vortex gets pushed off the pole toward Canada rather than staying centered.
• A different November look in the Pacific. My read of the Euro Weeklies is a November ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. In 1997, that same area had a trough. That's one of the clearest signs this isn't a repeat of 1997.

The analogs I'm using

Analogs are past winters with a similar setup that help show how this one might play out. Because of everything above, for December and February I've moved off my 1997/1982-led blend toward 1957–58, 1972–73, 1965–66 and 1969–70, while keeping 1997–98 in at a lower weight. January stays with my base blend.

Winter Temperature Outlook

Overall, I'm going near normal to slightly cold in the East and colder than normal in the South. That's a big departure from the typical strong El Niño winter. The story is really in how the season evolves month to month.

Month by Month

December 2026

December comes in near to slightly below normal in the East and South, with the Northeast running about −0.7°F. The northern Plains look milder.

January 2027

January is the mild month, running about +2 to +3°F in the Northeast. That's when I expect the polar vortex to recover and the Pacific jet to take over the pattern.

February 2027

February is the core of winter. Here's the key signal: 4 of my 5 cold analogs had a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January–February, including late January in both 1958 and 1973.

A sudden stratospheric warming is when the air high over the pole heats up rapidly and disrupts the polar vortex. That can send Arctic air spilling south a few weeks later. If that repeats this winter, February runs about −3°F in the Northeast (for reference, February 1958 was −7°F) and 5°F or more below normal across the South and Gulf Coast.

Winter Snowfall Outlook

The El Niño southern storm track is the story this winter.

• Above normal (125–150%+ of normal) from Texas and Oklahoma through Tennessee, Virginia and North Carolina. Keep in mind those are fairly modest normals to begin with.
• Near to above normal in interior New England.
• Near normal (90–110%) along the I-95 corridor. That's my adjustment above the raw analog average.
• Below normal (50–75%) across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
• 75–90% of normal in the northern Rockies.

February is the wild card. February 1958 buried the Northeast, but most of my analog Februaries were below normal there.

What Could Bust This Forecast

Two things could flip this to a milder, 1997-style winter:

• The Gulf of Alaska trough sticks around into November instead of the ridge I'm expecting.
• The polar vortex recovers with no late-January warming. For context, about 3 in 4 westerly-QBO winters since 1958 had no January–February sudden warming.

If either of those happens, the warm El Niño consensus wins out.

Bottom Line

The record-warm El Niño is pointing toward a mild winter, but the negative PDO, the 1957-like QBO, a slightly weak polar vortex, and a different November Pacific pattern all argue against a 1997 repeat. I'm expecting a near-normal to slightly below normal December, a mild January, and a February that could turn into the core of winter if a sudden stratospheric warming shows up. Snow-wise, the southern storm track is the big story, and I-95 sits near normal.

I'll keep tracking the November pattern and the polar vortex closely and post updates here and on X. You can follow along at @weatherwilly.

Friday Night Storm Update: Play by Play for Tomorrow though Sunday

 

Thursday Night Video Update: Nor'easter on track for this weekend

 

Introducing This Weekend's Nor'easter: High-Impact Coastal Storm Still Favored

We've got a Nor'easter taking shape for this weekend, and this is my first full write-up on it. I've been laying the forecast out on X over the last day- here's the fuller version for the blog, including the maps from those updates. This is still preliminary and subject to change. 

Initial impacts I expect

• Rain arrives Saturday morning across the area as the system begins to organize near the coast
• Storm ramps up late Saturday afternoon, with the stronger stretch lasting through Sunday morning
• High winds and rough surf at the beaches from Massachusetts to New Jersey if the coastal deepening verifies
• Highest confidence on a high-impact coastal track, not a weak storm stuck too far offshore
• Still evolving — some models keep the low farther out to sea; I'm leaning against those for now

The setup I'm favoring

I'm in the camp of the more amplified solution the AI Euro has been showing. The 500mb trends continue to support a low that can close off, intensify, and stall into the coast. That's the pattern you want when you're looking at a real Nor'easter threat for the Northeast — not a glancing blow.

Here is expected timeline if this does in fact track closer to the coast.

1. Saturday morning — rain enters the area

2. Late Saturday afternoon — the storm ramps up

3. Through Sunday morning — strongest stretch continues

Along the coast from Massachusetts to New Jersey, that means high winds and elevated surf are on the table during that late Saturday through Sunday morning window.

What I'm watching next

• Whether later model cycles keep supporting a closed-off, intensifying low that stalls into the coast
• How far inland the heaviest rain and strongest winds push once the track firms up
• Beach and coastal impacts from Mass to NJ in that peak window

I'll keep updating here and on X as we get closer. For now, the signal I trust most is the amplified coastal solution — and the initial impact picture above is what I'm planning around.

— Weather Willy

Winter Outlook 2027 out Monday October 12th!

 Stay tuned. Posting frequency will also pick up as the cold season approaches!

2pm Update: The Blizzard of 2026 Will Be Remembered

 Storm still unleashing its rath across parts of the area and northeast. History in the making for some.

5am Storm Update: Blizzard

 Good morning. Intense snowfall rates developed overnight and continue to rotate through region as as storm is strengthening. Expect snow and high winds to continue all morning. This has been quite the show overnight. The Blizzard of 2026 is not quitting yet. 

9pm Update: Crippling Snowstorm

 This is just getting started and totals are piling up fast. See you first thing in the morning. This will not be over till early afternoon.

5pm Storm Update: Bombing Out, Peak of Storm Approaching

Afternoon Update: Storm Just Starting to Develop

 

Morning Update: On Track, Just the Beginning

 

Blizzard of 2026 Evening Play by Play

 Good evening an historic blizzard is on track to hit the area tomorrow through Monday. The video below includes my final forecast and a play by play of exactly what to expect. The storm peaks tomorrow night through Monday morning. Expect intense snowfall rates and high winds during this time. Snow will be measured in feet in spots.  See you in the morning. 

7pm Storm Update on Tap

Stay tuned for updates today

 In the meantime see below from last night. 

The blizzard of 2026 is coming

9pm Update: Blockbuster Winter Storm to Impact Region

 A blockbuster winter storm will move into the region Sun morning and really get cranking by Sunday night into Monday morning. I expect a blizzard in spots. Below is my updated forecast map and a video that breaks it all down. See you tomorrow. 

9pm Video Update on Tap

 This storm is going to be major. Expect significant impacts Sunday and Monday.

Friday Update: Winter Storm Gaining Traction Sun-Mon

 Good morning. Things look to be coming towards what we discussed yesterday regarding a major winter storm impacting the region Sun-Mon. There will always be models spreads this far out but the goal of this blog is to make a forecast. Below is my initial idea of what I think happens. Timing is Sunday mid morning to Monday morning.

Most models are all converging on what the American model has been consistent on over the last 24 hours. A powerful storm that tries to tuck into the coast..

Although I am not taking this model verbatim, I think it continues to have best handle on this. 

Expect heavy snow wind and cold as this moves through.

Stay tuned, video out tonight with more details. 

Thursday Update: Storm Chances for Sun to Mon Increasing

Good morning. Despite model uncertainty I think there is a decent shot a winter storm hits Phili to Boston Sun into Mon

Earlier this week I laid out the key factors and discussed we need to evaluate how they trend . First image is a great representation of how these factors have trended from euro ensemble last 48hrs.

Notice one clear thing- wavelength separation as it relates to western ridge, energy over planes and energy out in the Atlantic. If i saw the opposite trend by today I would have backed down. So where does this leave us, do all models show a direct hit? No, they do not. You can see there is still a spread (pic 2).

However, since we are now 3.5 days away I think its appropriate to start to forecast how I think this evolves especially if It can have major impacts. Yes, by doing this there's a risk I end up wrong but the alternative is showing a roulette wheel of maps and model projections next few days. So here is what I am thinking. Given the more accurate models are trending to more wavelength separation, as sampling continues to improve over next 36 hours i think you will see most models trend to the northern shortwave diving in sharper and bundling the energy more (pic 3). This results in a storm that gets pulled closer to the coast at the surface similar to what GFS shows in pic 2.

I will add, once the storm system that will move through New Eng tomorrow departs, I think you will more consistency in models showing this. So bottom line, I expect further NW shifts and a major coastal storm to impact Phili to Boston this weekend. Precipitation type is all snow. No impact maps or amounts yet. If things continue to favor my forecast by tonight we can focus on that.

Wednesday: Eyeing Sunday and Monday

There is a chance of a winter storm Sunday and Monday. As is always the case details need to be worked out if it hits or is out to sea, but I think its a 50% chance as of now. Stay tuned I will share more details on here if it gains more traction next 24 hours. 

Sunday Morning Update: Weaker than I Expected

Good morning. Things have trended weaker vs my forecast and initial expectations. More like 1-2" for some but nothing that causes big impacts. Timing is later Tonight and it's a pure nuisance type event.

Don't like being wrong but things don't look to be tracking my ideas. We'll see what ends up happening. 

Saturday Night: Here is my initial Snowfall Map

Here is my initial snowfall forecast for Sunday night. I will have an update out tomorrow to see if my idea still has merit. 

Snow Storm Possible Sunday Night

 Good morning. I'm not sure who follows me on x on this blog but I've been discussing the shot of accumulating snowfall for Sunday night into Monday. Right now the models are trending more aggressive in line with this idea. It's not locked in yet but my confidence is increasing. I'll share some more details tonight. In the meantime here's my thoughts from a snapshot of one of my posts.

Weather Pattern Update

I am very bullish on Feb this year and maintain a target period around 14th for a storm. Any warmups that are shown or pacific influence will become more muted or short lived as period approaches.

Impressive -NAO coupled with a polar vortex that continues to be under assault (pic 2) means continued cold. Based on this, models may be struggling over AK and you could end up seeing more ridging vs what's shown below. What you can end up seeing is energy breaking off the pacific and getting clogged up over the central to eastern CONTUS due to major block. With a southern stream also in the mix its a stormy pattern with locked in cold high pressure to north. The NAO in Feb has a lot of influence vs early in season. Also this historic cold stretch we are on lasts through the entire week with consecutive days below freezing. A bitter arctic shot with a clipper system tops its all off next weekend. Translation: Winter is far from over and cold and stormy conditions are expected though Feb. Stay tuned, as we evaluate how my thoughts unfold.

12 PM Storm Update: This Storm is the Real Deal

 

830am Observation Update: Storm is Cranking

 

7pm Update: Play by Play for Tomorrow

 

Good evening. The storm is on our doorstep and the forecast remains on track. In the video below I break down exactly what to expect tomorrow for this powerful winter storm. No changes to last nights final forecast which I also included below. Things get going just after daybreak and will deteriorate fast by late morning/early afternoon. The snow is going to come in hard and fast by this time. Ice mixes in to the south in Delmarva by mid morning turning into a sleet storm. Storm is over by Mon morning.   Enjoy the video, see you in the morning. 

Stay tuned for next update around 7pm

 As of now everything is on track. No changes to my thoughts last night check out the video if you haven't seen it. 

Timing looks to be on track as well. Expect this storm to really move in around daybreak tomorrow. 

10 PM Storm Update: Final Forecast and Play by Play

 Good evening. My updated l forecast is below.. The goal is to not have to change this unless my read on the storm is wrong. This is going to be a major storm. Largest one we've had in 5 years. Here is what you need to know:

We have the coldest air of the season moving in right now. Temperatures are going to drop to almost 0 tonight. It's this Arctic air mass that is really going to make this storm brutal.

Snow should start to move into the area just around daybreak on Sunday with temperatures in the single digits to low teens!

Things will really get cranking late morning through the afternoon. Expect heavy snowfall with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Some sleet can mix in at times especially later in the afternoon. Temperatures never leave the teens all day, so everything that falls out of the sky will be accumulating.

There could be a small break in the storm later on Sunday afternoon into early evening. If this happens the storm is not over yet and things will pick back up later on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The storm should be over by daybreak Monday.

Arctic air that stays over the area for the entire week.

It's going to be a mess out there prepare for big impacts. Basically the entire eastern third of the country is under a Winter Storm Warning. Stay tuned for storm tracking updates.

Stay Tuned, Working on Update...Will be at 10pm

 I am issuing the final forecast to keep everyone ahead of the storm before weekend is underway. 

8pm Forecast Update

 

*Note: this is a high impact storm. Even areas that show lower totals on my map will have a lot of ice to deal with. Not be fooled by the lower amounts in the southern areas. 

Good evening. Major winter storm is on track for Sunday into Monday. Below is my latest forecast. I plan to update this one more time tomorrow night into a final forecast. The goal is not to have to change this map too much. 

Expect snow to move into the region just after daybreak Sunday. By late morning into early afternoon things start to really pick up. Some sleet mixes in CNJ South by the afternoon Sunday. Storm is not over until Monday morning. 

Next Update 7pm Tonight....Forecast on Track

 moved to 8pm. Stay tuned

Wed Night Video Discussion: Breaking Down the Storm

 

Storm Update: My Initial Forecast

 Good afternoon. Below is my initial estimate of storm impacts this weekend. Timing is very early Sunday into early Monday morning...

Expect an initial thump of snow for all areas then a transition to some sleet to the south. The exact timing and location of this is still TBD, so I am making an estimate in my map above on how I think this ends up playing out. I will adjust this daily if its necessary (hopefully not).

The model projection below is how i think this play out...

Notice the initial snow (blue), then a transition to some ice (orange and pink). The placement on this model makes sense to me.

The cold out out ahead is very strong, so the models that are warmer and further north I think are wrong. Time will tell if I am am correct.

Stay tuned. More to come including video breakdowns. 

Storm Update 3pm. Will provide more details and hone in on timing and track

Major Storm Potential Sat Afternoon through Sunday: My initial estimate

 Good evening. The talk of the town is the major winter storm potential this weekend. Below is my initial estimate of how I think this storm evolves, and who is impacted. Keep in mind this can change drastically but it wouldn't be a forecast if I just shared different model runs every day. There still is a chance this can miss but that window is narrowing. The timing looks to be Saturday afternoon through Sunday as of now. 

Stay tuned, I will provide a lot more detail as the days go on including videos. 

Major Storm Potential Next Weekend. Stay tuned for Commentary

Final Forecast for Tomorrow's Storm

 ere is my final forecast below. Snow works in way in by mid morning for most spots and lingers throughout the day. Up in Eastern New England it goes into the night. For NJ initially i don't see high impacts outside the NW areas of the state due to marginal temps. However by the afternoon expect a few inches possible to pile up as cold air rushes in.

Snow Moving in. More Snow Tomorrow, Forecast Below

 Good morning. Snow is now moving in from the west. Expect 1-3" in many areas by this afternoon.

We then turn our attention to tomorrow. I will have a video out tonight.

Here is my forecast:

I have been anticipating western trends in models with this. We are starting to now see them..

On my X handle @weatherwilly I go into some of the reasons why.

Regardless, expect up to a moderate snowstorm tomorrow for areas to the east. The local weather outlets will start picking up on this by the afternoon.

Very cold air follows next week.

Forecast for Light Snow Tomorrow. Part Two Sunday (Stay Tuned)

 

Friday Update: Snow Possible this Weekend

Tracking a Potential Winter Storm: What to Watch This Weekend

After a relatively quiet stretch, the weather patterns are shifting, and all eyes are on a developing system that could bring a meaningful layer of white to our region this Sunday.

When forecasting winter storms, we look closely at the jet stream—the high-altitude "river of air" that guides storm systems. For a few days, weather models were uncertain about how the atmosphere would react to a departing system from earlier in the week.

The latest data has cleared up that picture. We are seeing a "kink" in the jet stream that is allowing a favorable jet streak to develop right over our region. This change is significant because it pulls the surface low-pressure system closer to the coast—a classic setup for accumulating snow in the Northeast.

This won't be a one-day event; rather, it looks like a two-part arrival:

• The Introduction (Saturday): As a cold front moves in, expect a wave of light snow. While this isn't the "main event," it will mark the beginning of a colder, more wintry pattern.

• The Main Event (Sunday): Confidence is increasing for moderate accumulating snowfall on Sunday. The current data shows the heaviest impact in the regions highlighted in the maps below, though we are watching for the storm to track even further west, which could bring higher totals further inland.

While "exact amounts" are always the hardest part of a forecast to pin down until we are within 24 hours, the trends are very encouraging for those hoping for a snowy Sunday. The atmospheric ingredients are finally aligning in a way that favors a more impactful event rather than a simple "near miss."

Stay tuned. No impact maps from me until tomorrow. If trends hold I will have more detail