I am very bullish on Feb this year and maintain a target period around 14th for a storm. Any warmups that are shown or pacific influence will become more muted or short lived as period approaches.
Impressive -NAO coupled with a polar vortex that continues to be under assault (pic 2) means continued cold. Based on this, models may be struggling over AK and you could end up seeing more ridging vs what's shown below. What you can end up seeing is energy breaking off the pacific and getting clogged up over the central to eastern CONTUS due to major block. With a southern stream also in the mix its a stormy pattern with locked in cold high pressure to north. The NAO in Feb has a lot of influence vs early in season. Also this historic cold stretch we are on lasts through the entire week with consecutive days below freezing. A bitter arctic shot with a clipper system tops its all off next weekend. Translation: Winter is far from over and cold and stormy conditions are expected though Feb. Stay tuned, as we evaluate how my thoughts unfold.
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