Good morning. Another winter storm will impact the region early Friday morning through the afternoon. This storm looks to focus on areas just off the immediate coast of the Mid- Atlantic and New England. As the story always goes, nothing has been locked in yet but we are at the point where an initial forecast has to be made. We have about 24 hours to work this out. I will have another update out at 7pm.
Below are my preliminary thoughts on snowfall amounts...
The big question with this storm is how far west the snowfall makes it. Model guidance has been split on if this is a low pressure system that just skirts off the coast or one that tries to really intensify as it hits the New England coast. The model below I think represents best on what I think happens...
By the predawn hours Friday snow moves into the region. Temps will be very cold so the snow ratios I expect to be around 12 to 15:1 for inland areas...
By around 7am the snow has spread more north...
By 1pm the storm could potentially really intensify near the Gulf of Maine, this is why I have totals juiced up over eastern New England...
As I mentioned before some models do not intensify this storm and want to slide it more off the coast. If that happens there will be lower snowfall amounts. At this time I think some of those models are under anticipating the interaction of upper level energy off the coast.
Below is upper level energy. I highlighted the area that the models are trying to figure out how it interacts. If this becomes more consolidated the storm is stronger and more towards the coast. Although I do not think this ends up really shifting more west, there is always the chance the models are feeding back on the interaction between the pacific and polar energy interaction in the jet streams...
Stay tuned. I will have an update out at 7pm tonight.
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