Sunday Morning Update: Final Forecast

 Good morning. Below is my final forecast for late this afternoon into Monday. I made some final adjustments and honed in on where I think an initial burst of accumulating snow can occur...

As you can see I extended the 4-8" into NW NJ  and parts of CT. This is based on recent data to support the idea I had that the low level cold can hold on a little longer tonight as the initial burst of snow comes in.

Here is a Summary:

• Snow moves into areas late this afternoon/evening south to north.

• The initial burst of snow could be quite heavy in the pink and blue zones later this evening. 

• Snow then changes to sleet, freezing rain then plain rain by after midnight Monday for pink and blue zone.
• My feeling is a decent amount of frozen precipitation can fall before this

• For the Green zones a little initial snow to rain is expected. 
• Light green zone can see around an inch of snow

• For the far interior/ski areas over a foot can be expected

• The winds really start picking up late tonight into Monday morning

• Main storm is over by around daybreak Monday

• Back end snow showers can be expected late Monday morning/afternoon for most areas

It is cold outside! Temperatures are in the single digits and models are finally starting to realize this cold air will not be easy to move. The result is frozen precipitation being projected to hold on a little longer in areas to the NW in pink and blue zones. Due to the fact we now have data to support my suspicion, I increased the totals there for the final update.

Looking at the projected radar for this storm you can see the initial burst of snow then changeover to ice and rain at the end...

This will be fun to watch on the radar later tonight. I will be reporting from my house in NW NJ and I am hoping I can see at least 4" before this changes over.

Also notice the back end snow showers late Monday morning being projected. To the fact we will have a rapidly deepening upper low, I think this will verify.

Stay tuned. I will have a 5pm update tonight just as the storm is on approach.

P.S. The weather pattern will stay very cold and active through rest of January. Next storm threat I am tracking is for Saturday. More after we get through this one.