Good morning. Over last several days there has been speculation that a big storm could develop this weekend along the east coast. There is some merit to this. Although the pattern isn't exactly what I want to see, there is a lot of cold air and strong energy that will be entering the country in both the northern and southern jet streams. If this all comes together as some models indicate, then we get a big storm. The one issue with this threat however is the lack of blocking in the atmosphere. This means the storm will be all timing based as we do not have a big feature in place to slow everything down.
Lets take a quick look...
What you see above is projected energy in the jet stream from the GFS model for Friday. I highlighted the features or ingredients for this storm threat. It will all come down to the positioning and timing of the very strong northern and southern jet stream energy as you see above. If these two pieces of energy are not strung out and catch up to each other, a powerful low pressure system forms and moves up the coast.
Last nights model runs from multiple models showed this...
As you can see a major storm. However, based on those factors I explained above, this is far from set in stone. Because we do not have blocking or high pressure over Greenland, any changes in speed of those two pieces of energy can cause the storm to not for or be weak and out to sea.
Looking at a range of solutions from the model ensemble system, you can see what I mean by the potential low locations scattered...
So bottom line is we have something to track here. I assign a 40/60 probability at this time of something to impact the east coast.
Stay tuned for updates. As I get more data next two days I will start to take a stab at making a prediction as always.
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