Good morning. As of 7am our storm is dumping heavy snow over parts of NJ, CT, LI, Mass. Already reports of a foot of snow in parts of the jersey shore and near long island. Powerful heavy bands of snow are developing and will continue for these eastern areas this morning and into this afternoon for eastern New England. As this is happening, sinking air to the west is causing lighter snowfall. This was expected but it is a little more east than the forecast. The result will be areas NW of I95 seeing lower amounts. This includes parts of interior New England. You will start to see the snow taper off by late morning for those interior areas of NJ etc.
Currently heavy snow falling in a few main spots...
That band especially along the jersey shore is absolutely dumping with rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour. I saw reports of a foot already at the jersey shore. Per my arrow this will all pivot northeast as the morning wears on.
For areas to the west seen below, we are seeing the lighter snow/cutoff a little more east than projected yesterday. Already 3-4" inches have fallen in these areas but there should not be too much more. 6" will be a win for areas like NW NJ as the snow will taper off later this morning but continue for eastern areas...
I am away but got a webcam set up on my deck in Randolph NJ (NW NJ)...it appears about 3-4 inches has fallen so far. Maybe another 1-3" this morning...
Currently our storm sits off the coast and is rapidly deepening....
Winds are starting to really gust for areas near the coasts over 40mph based on reports. A blizzard is incoming for eastern New England. Here is a projection on how the storm will play out as the day goes on. Notice how the snowfall cuts off for western areas by late morning but really starts to wind up and intensify over the main target zone of eastern new England through the afternoon....
At you see that storm crank up over eastern New England thats when the blizzard occurs near the shoreline.
Here are projected wind gusts....
In terms of the forecast, the 3-6 inch zone needs to be nudged east more and the 6-12 inch zone compressed more. The rest of the forecast remains on track for the 10-16 and 14-24 inch zones.
Once the last flake falls we will tally everything up and see how this performed.
Stay tuned, I will check in again this afternoon as the storm is at peak intensity over New England. I will also be commenting on twitter.
About 4 inches in Montclair at 11 am, very light snowfall rate. Will struggle to get another inch before it stops around 2 pm. The evening totals for West Orange - Montclair - Clifton for the GFS, CMC and associated short-range US and Canada models was mostly 5 inches on the Friday evening runs. The Euro stayed out at 7 to 8 inches. Well, how about that, the Euro lost! But not by much of course.
ReplyDeleteI thought this storm was interesting because of how much the models disagreed with each other right up to the start of the storm, and how much they kept on changing. There should be some sort of "variation index" based on the level of model convergence and variability, to give users some idea of how reliable the model forecasts are for a storm situation. Something like the VIX index for the stock market. As I told my friend yesterday, when the models converge 2 or 3 days before a storm, you probably have a good forecast. When they keep on disagreeing and changing, you know that there's more unpredictability. They were correct overall in showing that the NJ Shore and Long Island were gonna get hit hard, and there would be a steep snowfall gradient from west to east. But the media forecasts may have overestimated a bit for the "suburban mezzanine" region between the coastal areas and the mountains to the west (i.e., 6 to 12 inches, as with your final map). I'm not criticizing this forecast, I'm just saying that a "level of numerical uncertainty" rating might also be useful with forecasts.
Willie, you seemed to focus on voracity as you covered this storm, and that's great, I learned from it. The voracity set-up here helped to show why this storm became a "bomb" and intensified so fast as it nears New England. But as you say, there was also a lot of "downward flowing air" to the west, i.e. the high pressure in the trough quickly moving in with Arctic air. As you say, that caused the snowfall gradient to be steep from west to east, maybe steeper than first anticipated. So it was an interesting "battle line" between that cold "downflow" to the west and the cyclonic voracity in the warmer air to the east, spinning up the storm into a bomb. That's weather for you, one big on-going battle between cold and warm, high pressure and low pressure, dense saturated air and light dry air. That's what keeps it interesting! Jim G
I just got out the ruler and walked out to the flat table in the back. I read just shy of 4 and 3/4 inch, say 4.7, at 2 PM. Doesn't look like there will be much more than this. Jim G, Montclair.
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