Good morning. Quick update as I have a busy day. I will provide more detail tonight around 8.
Details on our storm are starting to become a little more clear, although I suspect it will take at least another 24 hours to really start to hone in on the detailed impact zones. Overall, this is a winter storm for areas off the coasts and outside of the big cities. That means pretty much if you live NW of Interstate 95 you will see wintery precipitation. The most snowfall will be further into the interior with mixing just after I-95. Timing is late Sunday night to Monday afternoon for most.
Models have been struggling with where to place the low pressure center. We have very cold air ahead of this storm but due to how amplified the upper level low pressure system will get, it will try to bring warm air into the area. History suggests in these situations the low should try to redevelop off the coast eventually. This means there will be a zone of mixed precipitation.
Below is my updated map. As I said we should start to get more clarity on this by tomorrow, but this is my best estimate as of now...
You can see how I expect warm air to win out to the south with mixing in between and the most snow in the interior. Keep in mind this is very preliminary and there will be changes over the next several days. We are 3.5 days out so I always like to make an initial forecast by now.
In terms of models. I will show the GFS and Euro as an example.
The GFS is the coldest of the models right now and I think isnt too far off based on history.
Storm initially amplifies inland then tries to jump to the coast. Notice the rain and mixing...
You can see in image two that jump to the coast. This is a key variable. IF that does not happen. Then you would see an output like the European below with more warm air...
I think the warm air surge is a little overdone here. And the GFS has a better handle on this. Again, I say this because of the very cold air in place ahead of the storm which models often underestimate and historical setups that are similar.
More tonight at 8.
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