Tuesday: Most Models Trend East, Euro West

Good morning. We will continue to focus on the weekend storm threat today. At this time most major modeling  has trended east which means the storm hits eastern New England. The one model that still has a very powerful storm impacting the whole Northeast is the European. After looking at everything carefully, I lean towards the non European eastern solution. This by no means is stone, but I will explain below.

Taking a look at projections, here is the spread for storm Saturday...

GFS...

Canadian..

And finally the European with an epic blizzard...

So clearly as of now the European is an outlier. What makes me have reservations about what it is showing are a few things.

For one, the European model tends to over amplify things as its bias. For two, its ensemble package is east of its main operational model with its projection of the low center seen below...

So why the difference? Its all due to how the energy in the jet stream is being handled. The models are are east are not allowing the southern energy in the jet stream to consolidate and phase with the northern energy. Below you will see how the southern energy is "dragging its heals" causing a less consolidated storm. Part of this is also due to the ridge out west not being as strong, allowing this energy to hang back...

This doesn't allow an early phase of the jet streams and the result is a storm that forms more east. There has been a tendency this year to not allow energy to eject out of Texas easily and we are seeing it projected again here. 

So the bottom line is as of now I agree with most modeling that the more east solution could make sense. However, given it is Tuesday this can all change and I can be wrong. 

Will the European score a major win here?

Time will tell stay tuned.