Good morning. The data is in and we have a blockbuster storm on our hands. For many areas this storm will feature heavy snow, wind, and bitter cold temperatures. The storm moves in late this afternoon and really gets cranking by Saturday morning. For areas of eastern New England the snow will be measured in feet.
I am in Stowe VT for this one but coverage will continue. There will be late afternoon update today as the storm approaches. Also keep an eye on my twitter page for up to the hour updates.
My final forecast is below followed by a summary and detailed discussion..
Summary:
- Major winter storm moves into the region late tonight
- Snow starts to spread into the area from south to north early this evening to later tonight
- Areas to the south will see snow start by middle of this afternoon
- Heavy snow and wind then develop overnight into Sat morning
- wind will be gusting over 40mph for many areas especially near the coast
- The storm really starts cranking Sat morning into the afternoon with intense snowfall rates developing over eastern New England and other areas near the coasts of 1-3" per hour
- This is where over two feet of snow will fall in places
- By mid afternoon the worst of is it over for areas in NJ but heavy snow and wind continue in New England causing blizzard conditions at times near the coast
- Storm finally tapers off Sunday morning
So lets take a look at how this has evolved. Models last night all started to converge on a solution that brings the heavy snow a little more west than I initially anticipated. This is due trends in the upper level energy really condensing and blowing up seen below.....
In simple terms what you are looking at is upper level storm energy trending deeper and stronger along the east coast. This means our storm can blow up and track closer to coastal areas. Due to this trend on all modeling, my map was adjusted accordingly.
At the surface, I like how the European shows this evolving. This loop is from later this afternoon into Sunday morning. Notice the dark blues which represent very heavy snowfall of 1" + per hour ...
Also notice the track of the low pressure system and its strength! The low is forecasted to possibly go below 970mb. That is extremely strong for a winter storm!
This means not just heavy snowfall but winds...
Above are wind gusts Saturday afternoon. Notice especially by the coast, winds will be gusting over 40mph at times. This will cause blizzard conditions/blowing and drifting of snow.
The epicenter of this storm is eastern New England. I expect over 2 feet of snow will fall in places. They will get caught in a powerband of snow Saturday morning into the afternoon that will drop multiple inches of snow per hour. We may even get reports of thundersnow!
Below are hourly snowfall rates at peak of the storm, notice the powerband of snow....
This could be historic and you will likely see some crazy reports coming out of eastern Mass etc tomorrow. The atmosphere will basically be maxing out over that area.
Stay tuned I will have a late afternoon update as storm approaches.
Morning, I love your site.......I todays update you mention snow till "Monday" is this true ?
ReplyDeleteThanks! And that was a typo
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