Saturday Morning Forecast Update

 

I want to add this map to my morning post. This area I am most concerned about for heavier initial snow to ice conditions. Any rain I am thinking will be at the end and not last long. Temperatures will go above freezing for a few hours then crash back below freezing by Monday afternoon with snow showers.

See morning post below with updated forecast...video later today to break it all down...

<<<<<<<<<<<<

Good morning. Very very cold air is currently over the area with temperatures for many in the single digits. This is the cold air that will be ahead of our storm that moves in tomorrow night. Believe it or not the storm will try to erode this air fairly quickly and many areas will see rain or a mix of snow and ice. Recent model guidance has really insisted the warm air wins out with this storm due to a very powerful stream of high winds developing in the lower atmosphere. I still think the models are overdoing the magnitude of the warm air but regardless I have incorporated it into my updated map. 

My final forecast is out tomorrow morning. 

Here is a summary:

• Storm moves in late tomorrow afternoon/evening for most
• Expect an initial burst of accumulating snow for areas off the coasts NW of I-95 for a few hours Sunday night.
• Indications are this moves in pretty fast
• For areas near coasts and SE of I-95 this is mostly a rain storm

• The snow will then change to sleet and rain for many
• Winds will be gusting over 35 mph and as high as 50mph near coastal areas Saturday morning
• Storm tapers off Monday afternoon with backend snow showers for most

Here is my updated map:

As you can see I made some west shifts from yesterday. This was necessary based on recent observations. That pink zone is the most interesting to forecast for this storm. It will be a wildcard for how much snow falls. 2-4" including sleet is a very good middle ground at this time.

Recent models show the initial snow Sunday evening with warm air and rain trying to race in on the eastern flank...

I like what the European model is doing above. The cold air that is over our area now is fresh and dense. It will take some time to erode it initially on Sunday so I do see a nice burst of snow to the NW as this model shows. 

Eventually however due to a very powerful jet stream of warm winds at 5000ft things will turn to ice and rain. Below shows that jet stream of winds...

The brown streak is warm air and high wind rushing in from the south. If we had our upper level low pressure system more east this wouldn't be as much of a concern. That low pressure center however moves just to our west seen by the blue circle...

Heavy snowfall happens just to the north west of upper level (18000ft) low pressure centers. 

Over the next 24 hours I want to see how models handle this upper level low with the fresh cold air ahead of it. I Still believe there is a chance it can not cut as far inland and what many think right now due to under estimating the strength of the cold. In English that means more frozen precipitation can be supported in the pink zone.

Stay tuned. Will have an update tonight.