Good morning. It has been a pretty incredible and historic stretch of winter. In Randolph NJ we have had over 50" of snow this month alone! It is like being in VT in NJ.
Looking ahead the next two days warm up in many spots with temps in the 40s. This along with the late February sun will start to melt our snowpack. We do have a short spurt of colder air on Friday into Saturday. A wave of low pressure will try to develop on the back of this cold air on Saturday. This means some winter precipitation for areas of the interior Saturday.
We then have the arrival of a very cold air mass early next week. We need to look for storm development on the front end of this on Monday then again a potential bigger storm system on Wednesday. Nothing is a guarantee I am just breaking down what I see in terms of pattern potential.
Lets take a look...
We have a surge of warm air today and Thursday before our next quick injection of cold arrives on Friday..
A storm system will then attack this cold air on Saturday and cause rain for areas near the coast and some snow to the interior. However, it appears the cold will not hold and snow changes to rain even in New England...
Some accumulating snow can occur before this happens even in NW NJ and NE PA but I wouldn't count on that.
We then have our next shot of cold air early to middle of next week as a part of the polar vortex swings through. You always look for storm development on the front and back end of these cold spells...
On the front end, there is a small chance we see something develop but I would be more focused on the back end of this outbreak around the March 3rd timeframe...
I am not going to show surface projections yet because the models are too consistent. What I will show is the pattern below for middle of next week...
What you are looking at above are a few puzzle pieces I like to see on a map for potential storm development. The key here is that vortex of cold air that will swing through then possibly settle off the coast of eastern Canada. If that happens, it can lock in some cold air and allow a storm to amplify near the east coast around March 3rd.
Thats all there is to really say for now. I will be monitoring these variables.
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