Good morning. Our ice and rain storm is almost through the area as of 8am. Overall my snowpack in my backyard held up well and I still have 18".
It warms up this afternoon to the 40s before a very strong shot of arctic air arrives tonight into Wednesday. Temperatures will crash into the teens by tomorrow morning. This cold dry air is key to our next winter storm threat for Thursday morning into the evening.
At this time I am fairly confident several inches of snow will fall from Philadelphia to New England on Thursday before possibly changing to some light ice. In fact, trends have been for more not less snow last 24 hours. This has the shot to be a nice moderate snowstorm where areas like NNJ, NE PA and New England see 4-8 inches.
Here is a rough draft of an initial impact map. I will update this to a more formal map tomorrow morning as details become more clear...
Lets take a look...
High pressure moves in tonight bringing with it very cold air...
As this is occuring our next storm system is developing near the Gulf...
Now unlike this last system, this next one has alot of cold air to run into due to that high pressure in place over our area seen by the "H" letters...
As we enter Thursday morning, the moisture associated with the storm from the south starts to attack the cold air causing snow to break out in many areas...
By early afternoon Thursday, snow is accumulating already in many spots as storm continues to run into cold air causing a lot of lift in the atmosphere...
By the evening models try to indicate the warm air starts to win with a changeover to some ice to the south...
By this point it is too late and the snow accumulations are already done.
The key to this whole storm system Thursday are the trends in the model I have observed last 24 hours. Originally they had the storm cutting more west and the cold high pressure moving out of the way. However, that is not the case anymore. All trends now have been to strengthen the high pressure or in other words reinforce the cold air ahead and during the storm.
Check out the trend in the GFS model to keep this High pressure in place building it back to the west...
This is what I call a snow lovers trend.
Stay tuned. I will be updating on this frequently.
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