Good morning. More active weather is on the way the next several days. We have a light round of ice and snow that will move through on Saturday night followed by a much bigger storm on Monday night through Tuesday. The bigger storm threat on Tuesday is likely to have a big area of sleet and freezing rain in the Mid-Atlantic due to very low level cold air. This means an ice storm for many. The tricky part is determining where this sets up. I put together a general impact map at the end of this post and will start to hone in on more details this weekend.
Lets take a look...
A very cold airmass is in place over our area currently and will stay in place through early next week as seen below by temperature departures from average...
The big blob in the central part of the country is the polar vortex. Talk about serious cold!
On Saturday night, a weak disturbance will try to attack this cold air from the south and cause a light snow and ice event...
Some moderate accumulations over mountains of New England with some light ice to the south as seen above.
Then the focus turns to the main event. On Monday, a storm system will be developing down near the Gulf with a extensive area of high pressure to the north feeding in very low level cold air...
The storm is going to try to cut to our west but will run into this cold high and be forced to redevelop off the coast. As the storm cuts to the west initially, it will try to draw in warm air aloft at 5000ft...
Given the fact we have very dense surface cold in place this is the classic recipe for an ice storm in spots on Tuesday...
Looking above, surface temperatures during the storm will be below freezing for almost all of the Mid-Atlantic despite the fact the storm is trying to draw in warm air at 5000ft.
This results in what you see below, a snowstorm to the north with a big ice event in between as seen by orange and pink...
Now remember, this is just one model run and the placement of the snow/ice line can and will change.
The map below gives you a general idea of what I am thinking at this time for Tuesday...
Stay tuned as things will change as we approach the event. I expect the cold air will be more extensive than modeled.
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