1pm note: Pretty drastic shift in models this afternoon. The Sunday storm threat now looks much more likely. Stay tuned, I will have more info by tomorrow morning.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Lets take a look...
Some light snow moves into New England on Friday with the chance of up to a coating for areas to the south like NNJ..
This will usher in much colder air for the weekend, with the next piece of energy on its heals.
As the cold air moves in on Saturday and Sunday, a piece of energy will try to round the base of the cold air potentially causing a light to moderate storm on Sunday...
Now right now I only assign this a 40% probability of occurring. Most models are out to sea with this storm. However, there is room for some last min trends to the NW which this winter we have seen happen frequently. That is why I assign it a 40% chance.
You can see below how the GFS model has trended a little more west with the upper air energy for this storm (orange streaks off the coast)...
We need to keep a close eye on this as it could be one of those last second surprises that drops 3-6 inches of snow on Sunday. Again, at this time I assign a 40% chance.
As we enter next week arctic air is moving into the country aided by a piece of the polar vortex dropping south...
What you are seeing over southern Canada is extremely cold air that will start to spill into the country.
In terms of a big storm, you always look on the front end of these arctic out breaks then again on the back end.
The front end of this cold outbreak will be the middle of next week..
The models do not show a storm but you can see below they have the energy on the field that could cause storm development if things became more amplified on Wednesday/Thursday...
I don't really think this materializes to much. My feeling is that there will not be enough amplification in the jet stream.
However, if I had to target a period that had the best chance for a storm it would be next weekend into early the following week (12-14th).
Why?
I see evidence of more amplification of the jet stream on the back end of the arctic outbreak next weekend...
What you see above is my interpretation on what could happen if things became more amplified. The exiting polar vortex can become a 50/50 low over eastern Canada which would lock in cold air and allow amplification of energy along the east coast.
Right now models do not have a storm but you can see there is a lot of storm energy that will be near the gulf ready to be tapped if things amplify next weekend...
That's all for now. We have a lot of action on the table and over the next several days we will iron out if any of these storm threats will come to fruition.
Hello guys, I just want to share my joyful experience about HACK VANISH CREDIT SPECIALIST. Before the coronavirus pandemic, I had criminal Judgments, few evictions, and late payment which negatively impacted my credit score down to 487 and left me in difficult financial situation, as a single mum of 3, I needed a loan to keep the family running after I lost my husband as a result of COVID-19, all hope were lost, until Mrs. Olivia referred me to HACK VANISH, a credit genius who was very helpful in fixing my credit 6 days after I reached out to him via his contact details; Email: hackvanish (At) gmail (Dot) com and Phone: +1(650) 499 5548, throughout the process, I felt so involved because an open line of communication was maintained till I got my FICO score restored to 796, currently my loan application has been approved, I can now give my kids better life. If you need to hire a hacker, HACK VANISH is highly recommended.
ReplyDelete