Good morning. Now that our storm is finally pulling away, I want to show how my forecast did vs the actual results. Overall, I did very good with this storm. You all know I am not afraid to admit when I am wrong so it felt good to see the forecast work out this time. I included final verification maps below along with some bonus footage from height of the storm on Monday.
The second part of this post takes a look at future storm threats and a massive cold outbreak that will hit the country next week. Temperatures are really going to plummet by the end of this weekend and stay very cold throughout next week. In fact, we may even get a visit from the polar vortex. In terms of storm threats, we have a small chance of a storm on Sunday and Monday and another system we have to watch for middle to end of next week. I will be updating daily on these threats.
So here was my final forecast vs actual snowfall reports...
Overall I hit most spots with the exception of the Boston area. Given the fact I also forecasted this storm to track north and not south like many where originally saying, I give myself an A on this one. Again, you all know I am a straight shooter and have graded myself harshly in the past (including the December storm). It does feel good to have gotten this one right given the size of the storm.
Here was evolution of my forecast from Friday to Sunday vs actual storm output...
So there you go. This was one for the history books.
Here is some bonus footage from height of the storm...
Moving on. There will be some light snow that moves into New England with some light rain to the south on Friday...
Few inches will fall to the north. Attention then turns to a storm threat for Sunday into Monday. At this time models are keeping it offshore. We need to keep a close eye on this however as there is room for it to trend back to the northwest and hit our area...
I will be examining this closely next several days.
In its wake, brutally cold air moves into the country for next week. This arctic outbreak will be the coldest air of the season. A piece of the polar vortex will be sitting over southern Canada...
Get ready to bundle up! This is very impressive looking and is the result of that stratospheric warming we had several weeks back which split the polar vortex.
The 2nd storm threat we need to watch is on the leading edge of this outbreak middle to end of next week. If we miss the storm threat on Sunday this will be the next one to watch...
Winter is here folks. February is going to be a very cold and active month. Stay tuned, I will start to hone in on all of this in the coming days.
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