Good morning. What a mess we have ahead of us weather wise. Multiple impulses of energy will be moving through the area next 5 days and the models are struggling to figure them all out. Today I will discuss what conclusions we can make right now and what is still up for debate.
To summarize, light sleet and freezing rain moves through area later today. Nothing major but could make things slick. We then have a potential ice storm to track for Tuesday. At this time it appears areas from CNJ to Southern New England will see a prolonged period of freezing rain and sleet with snow in interior New England. Models are all over the place and really struggling with placement of rain/snow/ice with this system. I am going to need to rely on history here to try to make an initial forecast.
Starting off, light freezing rain and sleet moves through later today...
Sunday is clear then we have a mess to deal with Monday and Tuesday...
There is a lot of energy on the map here and models are trying to hone in on what gets consolidated where. Image below shows the chaos...
It appears an initial area of ice can move through Monday but the main event will be Tuesday. Now here is the critical part, the Monday wave will help dictate where the bigger Tuesday storm sets up. What I mean is, it will dictate the cold and warm air boundary.
As Monday's system moves through it does pull in some warm air aloft (seen below). How far south this boundary goes is the million dollar question...
At this time I can not argue too much with the GFS model. It shows the warm air boundary aloft draped across the interior on Tuesday. This means snow melts in the upper atmosphere BUT the due to high pressure in place the surface stays cold...
This is the recipe for an ice storm as sleet and freezing rain will fall across a large area due to this on Tuesday...
They also show some snow can fall too...
So what's my conclusion here? I am keeping the initial map I had yesterday. This map supports the idea of an ice storm from the I-95 corridor to the NW with the chance for some snow to mix in...
Makes no sense to change this yet as there are just too many details to sort out. Stay tuned!
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