Monday: Frequent Cold and Snow Next Ten Days, Welcome to Canada

Good morning. Yesterday's storm ended up being quite the over performer. A general 4-8 inch with localized higher amounts for many areas. Places like my town now have a two foot snowpack on the ground. It is quite the scene out there.

The weather pattern over the next 10 days is something truly special if you love winter weather (or miserable if you don't). The coldest air in the northern hemisphere now sits over the United States thanks to the polar vortex moving in. Starting tomorrow, impulses of energy will be rotating around the vortex. This means frequent rounds of snow through next week. I cant say I have seen a pattern like this before.

At this time it looks like:

• We will see a few inches for many areas more northerly focused (NNJ into New England) Tuesday
• Another two rounds of snow Thursday and Friday which could accumulate several inches from southern New England into Central NJ area
• A big storm threat end of this weekend into early next week which could be more interior focused
• Temperatures will not go above freezing for many areas all week

I will be honest this is going to be hard to keep up with. All these snow threats are based on energy that is going to be rounding the base of the polar vortex so details may change. I will start off by discussing tomorrows snow threat then go into the pattern and why this is happening.

We currently have the Polar Vortex sitting over Southern Canada which means the coldest air relative to averages is on our side of the globe. This is sitting here and not over the North Pole because we had a stratospheric warming several weeks ago that disrupted the vortex causing it to split and move south...

This massive cold air pool is wedged between high pressure to the north over Greenland  and high pressure to the south over FL. This means the vortex stays in a similar place all week and impulses of storm energy move around it riding the warm and cold air boundary...

This is a pretty incredible pattern because it means frequent snow chances for the boxed area. 

On Tuesday, the first impulse moves through which brings a few inches of snow to areas from NNJ into southern New England..

Here is what I would say to expect tomorrow..

I will comment on this more tonight.

As we get to Wednesday night into Thursday, our next impulse of energy rounds the base of the vortex causing accumulating snow more south...

At this time the map below gives the best estimate where snow can accumulate several inches on Thursday...

The tricky part here is Thursday and Friday may be a one two punch with two rounds of snow! Both rounds can accumulate several inches.

We then have all the models showing a much larger area of energy approaching the area for the weekend into early next week. This is where a bigger storm threat can emerge. Models are hinting that the Polar Vortex energy can start to finally move which means the jet stream may amplify significantly causing a large storm this weekend or early next week...

 The image above is an average of many model runs so its diluted but gives an idea that something bigger can happen this weekend or early next week. Quite frankly its impossible to predict at this point because there is so much going on. All I can tell you is when that vortex gets moving is when things can really consolidate and cause something big.

Stay tuned. I will be updating daily as this weather pattern is one to remember!