Monday Weather Discussion: Snowstorm on Tap Wednesday

Good morning. Well, here we go again this week. A storm system (potentially major) will move in to the region Wednesday and there will be impacts for most areas. There still are details that need to be worked out (as usual) but as of now I have enough information to put together an initial impact map. This will be updated tomorrow to a final forecast...

Summary:

• Light rain/snow mix moves into the region early Wednesday morning
• By mid morning snow should pick up for most areas
• By early afternoon noticeable impacts can be expected in darkest blue zone with potential impacts in other zones
• I favor higher elevations above 600ft for highest impacts
• Storm starts to die down Wednesday night
• There is still some uncertainty with this system:
• Some models have the storm more east which would shift the impact zone (red dashed lines on map)
• Other more aggressive models have higher snowfall amounts compared to what I have
• As of now, I factored in the middle ground to make my forecast
• I will make updates tomorrow if necessary

7pm update will be out tonight...

So we got quite the scenario unfolding and the usual model split.

The NAM model is the most aggressive and blows a low up tucked into the coast by Wednesday afternoon...

The European model is much more east and has limited impacts for all areas except eastern New England...

The GFS is more like the NAM..

My map above factored in all of this and tired to produce a good compromise. Regardless, there will likely be some changes to it tomorrow.

I am most interested to see how the ridging is handled out in the western Atlantic. If we see this ridge stronger then the more westward solution will come to fruition. If we see it break down the the euro wins...

You can see the variation of it form last 4 model runs. Overall a stronger trend which does support more west track. The NAM however could be overdoing this pulling the storm too close.

Stay tuned. I will have an update at 7pm tonight!