There are areas that are seeing 8+ inches of snow (PA did very well with this) and you will see reports of 12 inches maybe even a little more but localized reports do not justify a forecast. We are not seeing widespread impressive accumulations.
Despise the fact every major model was showing an impactful storm, the reality was this storm just did not tighten up enough on a large scale. What I mean by that is the energy transfer from the low out in the ohio valley to the low off the coast was way too stretched out and not compact. This means the best dynamics for heavy snow stayed off shore.
Snow will continue through midnight for many areas but as I said it will not too heavy. Expect a few more inches before this is all said and done.
I hate to end the year with a big swing and a miss but you live and you learn. I really took the bait last night.
Things will stay on the chilly side into April this year and yes it could snow again but we are really testing the extreme of climatology this late in the season. Lets see how things go.
I appreciate everyone who has been following and i'll do better for you next time!
It happens, you've been more accurate than not.
ReplyDeleteWhen do you think the 'light' snow we're experiencing now will end?
Thanks! Look like the light snow didn't end till early morning.
DeleteWe've got 6 inches in Cranford and still snowing, so not a total bust! Always appreciate your blog-
ReplyDeleteThank you
DeleteAt least you admit it. Always appreciate your reports. Keep up the good work Willy.
ReplyDeleteWilly, you did fine. You called the potential of this storm far out and were cautious about joining the crew who were saying 1-2 feet. I know your gut was against a major accumulation. Remember: as snow lovers, half the fun is dreaming about a big snow and what it represents. For me it was a nice day off work, time with the wife and kids, and some quiet moments walking in my backyard reliving my youth. Yes, I still lay on the ground at age 37 taking it all in.
ReplyDeleteI think this just about wraps up the season, making it bittersweet. It was a hell of a run this past month. Well done this year! The word on the street is spreading that a guy named Weather Willy is the man to follow.
Haha thanks. This should be a wrap on the season but in this pattern we are not in the clear till April
DeleteWill: Certainly don't consider this a bust at all. Freehold area still snowing hard. Weather is all about percentages. You are my go to on winter weather for past few years. Thank you for your efforts. Hope that leg heals up quick for ya.
ReplyDeleteThanks, glad you guys got some good snowfall
DeleteTrust in Weather Willy! Also, after shoveling this heavy stuff for the last hour, I’d call it much more than a bust. Thanks for all that you do.
ReplyDeleteThank you
DeleteHi Willy, not to rub it in, but right now, it's a mix of rain and crystal snow here in Montclair, haven't seen the fluffy stuff in several hours now. Yeah, a bust of sorts, but just a few hours ago I hear Craig Allen on CBS radio continuing to justify his 6 to 12 stance, saying that "the storm is still forming". And Joe C put out a video in mid afternoon talking about how the worst was yet to come. You got ahead of it. And it wasn't your bust, every weather person got lead astray by the models, which haven't seen many coastal storms under the present circumstances (winter to spring transition). And I must give you credit for your citation of the RGEM model, which seems to have roughly called it and didn't waiver much. Second prize, the GFS, which stayed on the low side of the synoptics for the past few days, never went over 10 inches in our area.
ReplyDeleteSo I take my hat off to ANYONE who has to look at all the confusing stuff coming from the computers and make a call before the public. As an observer, I have the luxury of equivocation. You are the one of the WX'ers that people are depending on to say this much or that much. The best you could do was to be honest, and that's totally what you did. And with honesty, we all learn from an occurrence like this -- let's hope that the models and modelers use this to do better next time. Jim G
Thanks Jim. How much did you end up with? Snow really hung on last night.
DeleteCleaned 5 inches off my car in Matawan around 4:30pm and it looks like we got another 5 since. Not a bust!
ReplyDeleteAt least 10" here in Belleville, so, not sure what the "bust" is about, except maybe I'm going to bust my back tomorrow clearing this! Love your blog :-)
ReplyDeleteHaha thanks...We just didn't see the upper end of the range really verify.
DeleteWell, it's a bust in terms of the 12-18+ did not materialize.... We did get about 8" in Piscataway as of about 10PM, still snowing smaller flakes, so not a small storm. Snow was not as heavy as two weeks ago, many fewer broken trees here this time around. It was snowing pretty good this morning at 8AM, but it didn't start sticking to the streets until about after 3 PM.
ReplyDeleteI like following your blog because I get to see the information and decisions that go into making a forecast - i.e, how the weather sausage is made. I also like that you're not afraid of breaking from the mainstream forecasters and following your gut. I could see the hesitation in your postings yesterday with the higher totals....
Thanks. These late season storms are always tricky.Even model data 12 hrs before the event could be off. That late update killed me the 6 to 12 was ideal. But hey you live and you learn.
DeleteNot a bust here either, south of Phillipsburg NJ. Pretty sure we got more than the last storm here.
ReplyDeleteThanks for everything, I always come here for the details!
Probably around 12"+ in Freehold. To me, your bust was calling it a bust :)
ReplyDeleteEG