WINTER OUTLOOK 2023 IS NOW LIVE
7am Update: Storm Starting Up
Good morning. No changes to my forecast with a range of 8 to 16 inches for many areas...
Snow is now starting to spread into the region, but this really does not get going toll later this morning...
By late morning, accumulations start to become noticible as the low starts to crank off the coast...
By mid afternoon I expect snow to really start piling up...
By this late tonight we are still snowing...
Get your stuff done this morning. Things will not be in good shape come afternoon. Eveything seems on track at this point. Remember 8 to 16 means 8 to 16. It doesn't mean 14 to 16. I expect a range with this and locailized higher amounts.
Will have update late this morning
Hi Willy -- you had a tweet where you showed that new "Positive Snow Depth Measure" for the NAM. I wasn't aware of that chart until you cited it. I now see that this measure has been added to the US models since late 2017, and is supposed to estimate what really piles up on the ground, not what comes down from the skies using the 10:1 ratio. This measure tells a somewhat different story about this storm, because of the warm ground temps and near-32 atmosphere temps. Looks like at least 2 inches that fall don't accumulate. The HRRR has a very dramatic difference -- the latest hourly HRRR is still showing around a foot accumulation in Essex and Hudson, but maybe 4 inches piling up. The GFS shows maybe 6 inches on the ground. And even the latest NAM, with its 14 inches falling, shows around 8 inches piling up. VERRRRRRRRY INTERESTING.
ReplyDeleteBut not to minimize this storm, that snow on the ground is going to be wet and heavy, will do a LOT of damage to trees and power lines. I've got my candles ready at home.
But just to point out -- looks like all of the 6 AM model runs have backed off a few inches from the really big snowfall totals from last night. Your favorite model, the RGEM, is sticking with what it has been saying for at least the last 2 1/2 days, i.e. around 8 inches falling (doesn't have a positive snow depth change measure, to my knowledge). NAM, CMC and Euro are still up there around a foot or more. But the HRDPS extension of the Canadian CMC global model went down quite a bit from midnight to 6 am, now quite close the RGEM, around 8 inches.
At this point, this one still looks like a horserace -- regarding what that "third" low center that will emerge early this afternoon off the Delaware coast does, how deep does it get, how long does it linger. If I'm reading this right (and yea, this is an amateur guess), it is that final act in this three-part play that determines how long this storm goes on past midnight, and how intensely the snow falls this afternoon and evening.
Thanks for your great updates, thought I might chip in my own .02. The drama continues !! Right into Spring . . .
Jim G
Mid-day model runs, both rapid-response, regional-scale, and global, all appear to be falling in line with RGEM ... but this one is so not over yet! Jim G
ReplyDeleteyeah, this will be a decent storm but not severe like we thought last night. I wish I stuck to my original idea and didnt get persuaded by last nights 0z model suite to upgrade totals. Then again, storm is far from over. Lets see how this plays out.
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