There will be a play by play video out tonight so stay tuned!
Here is the final forecast:
As you can see I am expecting heavy snowfall accumulations in many areas. For folks who live on or just off the coast including New England, accumulations can be cut down due to some warm air mixing in.
Here is a city by city idea of what I am expecting:
NYC: 8 -10"
Balt/Wash: 2-3"
Phili: 3-6"
Morristown: 9-12"
Harrisburg: 6-12"
Trenton: 4-7"
Hartford: 8-12"
Boston: 3-6"
Here is the evolution of the storm from 8pm tonight through tomorrow night:
Notice the heavy snow breaking out (purple). Expect 1-3 inches per hour in those bands. Also notice rain initially changing to some snow in central and south Jersey. Again I urge folks near the cost to use caution when it comes to the higher snowfall amounts.
Stay tuned for tonight's video!
Hi Willy, well, for those of us who aren't too fond of commuting to work over snow-clogged urban streets in Essex/Bergen/Passaic/Union, the GFS appears to be our last hope at this point. GFS continues the storm's westward tracking trend over the past two days, pushing the storm over Long Island and thus bringing in enough warm air to keep some rain in the picture up to maybe 25 miles west of the Hudson. NAM, Euro, CMC all have the storm in the sweet spot, jackpot accumulations everywhere. But the GEFS ensembles are about 50-50 with the synoptic scenario, so maybe the eastern urban zones stay under 8 inches? The difference in the GFS appears (to my not very well trained eye) to be in the way that the high over Newfoundland develops and moves, like a 6 hour difference in timing for it compared with the Euro, CMC, NAM (and a bit more easterly zonal movement following development). The Atlantic ridge looks about the same in all models, just that the GFS sees less resistance to the north (I think).
ReplyDeleteFor now, though, yea, the consensus is that this is a 10 to 16 inch event everywhere north of Route 1, with further upside potential. Of course I will be watching to see if the 12Z and 18Z GFS runs come into synch with the others (would stay up for the 24Z but probably still have to try to get to work, hope they let us go home early).
So, here we go, the big winter 17-18 finale! But hey, we're back up near 40 deg for the next 10 days, so what the heck, the snow will be melting before long on our warmer urban streets. Jim G
Mid-day GFS about the same; but the mid-day NAM is backing off on accumulations in NE Jersey, it now sees a more western / northern storm track like the GFS. But this is so not over! Jim G
ReplyDeleteLooks like the GFS once again laid an egg. The storm seems to be trending colder and even more intense. This is going to be one heck of a nor'easter. This will be a memorable storm for the interior and even NYC may get dumped on although I still am skeptical of that.
DeleteFun day of tracking ahead!
Thanks for your hard work Weather Willy!
ReplyDelete