Summary:
- Initial wave of light to moderate snow moves into southern regions tomorrow afternoon
- Expect some minor impact in areas to the south
- The main wave of snowfall moves in later on Tuesday night through Wednesday
- Travel impacts can be expected, especially in the purple zone
- There is the potential for over 6" of snow to fall in the main impact zone but there is still a high degree of uncertainty of how far NW or SE this zone sets up
- Some models have it much more south compared to my map
- My map is based on how I think this trends over the next 24 hours and adjustments will be made if necessary
So lets take a look at how this evolves...
The first wave of precipitation moves into the region tomorrow afternoon...
Areas to the south will be the initial focus as snow will breakout in southern PA and mixed precipitation in SNJ and northern Delaware.
The main event then moves in later Tuesday night through Wednesday as a coastal low develops...
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The two images above are from Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. Notice how the storm develops and stalls off the coast. This can be quite significant snowfall wise if this low comes close enough to the coast.
There still are differences however in the positioning of the heaviest snow. The NAM model for example is more southeast with the heaviest snow...
My forecast is more NW than this but I want to show that this could happen if I am wrong which would mean a shift SE in my heavy snowfall band.
By Wednesday evening this storm is still off the coast throwing snow back into the area...
The culprit for this storm development is a closed off pattern at 18000ft in the atmosphere....
You can see these two waves of energy phase and cause this storm to blow up along the east coast...
Depending on the final positioning of this process will determine where the significant snowfall sets up.
Stay tuned for the 7pm update!
Hey Willy, the model variability and forecasting variability on this storm is still pretty amazing, even though we're just 2 days out. Yesterday evening, the NAM was showing over a foot clear to the NY state border, while the GFS, CMC and Euro were below 3 inches north of 78. But this AM, GFS showing maybe 4-5 in Essex and Hudson, Euro saying up to 5, CMC a bit less (but that was the midnight run, see what the noon run sez), and of course, the NAM has backed way down, maybe 2 inches in Essex / Hudson, nothing much further north and west. NAM has been all over the place, looks like a very "sensitive" model.
ReplyDeleteI was listening to meteorologist Craig Allen on CBS newsradio this AM, and he said that yesterday's NAM totals "made our jaws drop". But he pointed out that the NAM has since come back in line with the other models (but it looks to me this AM like NAM is now below the others). As you said, this one is another horserace!!
So right now you are saying 6+ north of 78, Joe C is saying 3-5 between 78 and 80/northern 287, the 6 am NWS NY Snowfall map shows 3 inches in Essex/Hudson, 2 inches in Morris. Craig Allen said "a couple of inches in the City and northern NJ". And what the heck, Accuweather is down around 1 inch right now. I gather that March weather is especially difficult for the models to pin down, since atmospheric uncertainties are increased by the background seasonal changes taking place (welcome to Spring, tomorrow). It's just another part of the March madness! Go Syracuse! The "snowiest city"! (151 inches this year, but their lake-effect snow season is probably over -- oh well, they still have some great college basketball!) Jim G
Mid-day global models seem to converge in the 5 to 7 range for Morris/Essex/Hudson (hey, that's about what Willy sez!). The NAM has flipped once again back to its 12+ scenario. Too many shortwaves forming and running around on the maps, pick one and you get a blizzard, pick another and you get a dusting. Right now, about all I would say is somewhere between 1 and 15 inches. Jim G
ReplyDeleteI think we need to go with the middle ground here. The NAM looks too warm the euro too cold. I think the 5-8 is a good bet for many areas. Can this be a big one? Sure, but given its march 19th im going more conservative. This is the trickiest forecast of the year in my opinion.
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