Thursday Storm Update: High Impact Storm Will Feature Rain/Snow and High Winds

Good morning. Below is my updated impact map for tonight through Saturday morning...

Everything will be updated again at 7pm tnt.

Summary:

• High impact storm enters region tonight with rain
• details can still change as this will be very volatile to track
• By early tomorrow morning snow breaks out in the purple zones
• By mid to late morning snow will start to break out at the higher elevations (>700ft) in the dark blue zones)
• Rain and wind continue through Friday morning for the light blue and green zones (ex northern New England)
• By early to mid afternoon Friday, snow can start to break out in the light blue zones over NJ,PA , CT and Mass
• few inches of accumulation  possible
• By late Friday night, flakes can even fly further south on the way tail end of this system as cold air rushes in
• Major coastal impacts, especially up in New England as high winds and waves batter the shore line

So we are starting to iron out the finer details on this major storm system that will impact the region over the next two days. My map above is my best attempt to illustrate the impacts this storm will bring. Overall, this is a wind driven rain storm for areas to the south and near the coast, and a heavy snowstorm for parts of the interior. For folks in NW NJ and the Poconos I expect some impressive accumulations of snow can pile up if you live above 1000ft.

The details of how much and where it snows will all come down to the exact position of this low pressure (as discussed last few days) and its ability to pull down cold air from the upper atmosphere.

For example, looking at one particular high resolution model below, you can see as this storm really cranks up tomorrow morning the model is trying to show snow breakout in areas of NW NJ, PA...

We really do not know how and if this process will occur at this time but what you are seeing is something called dynamic cooling. As this low deepens off the Long Island Coast, the storm is pulling cold air down from aloft in areas to the north west. This can mean the higher elevations start to see heavy wet snow at this time (mid morning).

Notice also how NY state is getting clobbered with heavy snow.

By the time we get to tomorrow night, other areas will see the shot at some flakes to fly...

Again, we do not know if this model will be correct (some snow much less snow*) but this does depict snow extending down to Central and maybe Southern NJ. I do not expect much with accumulations however. 

The storm finally pulls away very early Saturday morning...

A major issue will be the coast when this is cranking up tomorrow...

This model is overdoing it but the point valid. A strong easterly wind batters the coast lines causing winds in excess of 40mph and gusts likely above 50mph. For inland expect noticeable winds on Friday as well.  Not a good situation at all.


Thats all for now. Big update tonight at 7pm as storm begins. Stay tuned!