Lets dive into it.
Low pressure starts to develop off the coast on Monday night...
This is where snow will really start to pile up quick in areas like RI,eastern Ct, central to eastern Mass, NH and Maine. For areas in the eastern Mid Atlantic a few inches can pile up Monday night. So do not be surprised come Tuesday morning.
By early afternoon Tuesday the storm is still pounding the region. Expect winds to be whipping big time up there.
This looks to be a blizzard for many areas up there. Snow accumulations should be 12+ in the epicenter...
For areas like in NJ do not expect major impacts from this but a nuisance Tuesday morning. Again, the target is eastern New England.
Stay tuned, more updates to come when I have time to post. Time to hit the slopes!
Hey Willy -- wow that mid-February Arctic stratosphere warming spike was a gift that kept giving, as far as winter 17-18 is concerned! Three Noreasters in 9 days. As to NE III for tomorrow, the models appear to be pretty much in synch, with north eastern NJ suburbs getting about 2 to 3 inches. This one belongs to Long Island and New England.
ReplyDeleteI would guess that this is the snow finale for the season, although the CMC shows some flakes here around the 21st (GFS thinks it will be rain, and the Arctic Osc supposedly trends + by that time). But the temps appear to stay chilly thru the 17th, then pretty much seasonable after that, low 50s. But no early Spring in sight! So, looks like we will remember 17-18 for the two very cold weeks that started on Christmas day, and the three Noree's in early March.
I see that the Newark Airport seasonal snow total today stands at 25.8 inches, and maybe add another 2 or 3, bringing the season to 29 inches. Roughly about the same as for 16-17, 30 inches. Both pretty close to average, as compared to 60.7 for 13-14 and 46.4 for 14-15. But until that February stratosphere spike came along, it looked like this one was going to be down there with 11-12, 07-08, and 06-07 (8.8, 14.6 and 16.5, respectively).
Looking forward to your post-mortem on this past season. Looks roughly to me as though Pacific dynamics defined December thru late February, while the Arctic and North Atlantic finally muscled-in in March. I read that LaNina winters in the Mid Atlantic tend to start cold but moderate into February, and we seemed on track with that until early March. I also read that an easterly (negative) QBO favors a negative NAO, and that pattern finally showed up in late Feb. Throw in that big mid-February Arctic stratosphere spike (which might be encouraged by the negative QBO), and it looks to me like the cocktail mix for winter 17-18. What's in your martini shaker? Jim G