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The 2023 Winter Outlook

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

The Morning Update: Storm Underway, Some Changes to Discuss

Good morning. Our snowstorm is now underway with light accumulations reported in NJ and a moderate snow...



There have been some developments with where the heaviest snow will fall with this storm. I discuss them below.

Our low is currently positioned off the VA coast. This will work its way up and deepen rapidly...



Snow will pick up rapidly in intensity as we reach mid morning, 9am below...



By the time we get to 12pm, conditions are deteriorating rapidly...




Expect snowfall rates of 1-3 inches an hour from 12pm to 5pm. The image below shows the snowfall per hour by this afternoon! This will be an all out snowstorm at this time...





 Below you can see the intense vertical motion in the atmosphere to support this..


So now to the changes...

The storm has shifted east overnight. This means areas in CNJ, NYC, Long Island into Boston now could see more snow than originally thought. New York City is now in the significant impact zone. You can see the shift in snow totals below...





This is a pretty major shift this close to the storm and the observations support it . I am monitoring if anything else evolves out of this. Now subtract a few inches on this image if you live near the coast but it demonstrates the point I am making. Areas out west in NY State and PA will now get ripped off because of this.

Could this completely be a bust? I really do not think so at all, but I am very surprised at this shift so close to the storm.


Stay tuned for live coverage later this morning.

8 comments:

  1. Coffee in hand checking Accuweather, Weather.com, and front and center WeatherWILLYblog. Will be taking the kids out in an hour for initial shoveling. We venture out for a walk in the street around noon to welcome Quinn to Passaic County.

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  2. You're doing the Lord's work, WeatherWilly. Keep it up.

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  3. Good Morning Mr. Ciccone! I can't wait for the live coverage! Thanks for the updates. You're awesome!

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  4. We live up in the Alpine section of Lake Mohawk in Sparta -- had close to a foot of snow during the last storm and no power (still) since Friday. My wife and I headed for our apartment in Ventnor last Friday during the height of that storm (no problem driving once out of Sussex County) as soon as our electricity went out.

    Wife is a teacher in Morris County (no school today). She is up in Sussex County at our son's place (he has electricity). I am a school principal in Central NJ -- here the rain is changing to a slushy mix -- I am heading down to Ventor apt as our school is closing early but tomorrow should be a regular day -- easier for me to get here from Ventnor than it is from Sparta in this type of weather.

    By the way -- back in the 50's and 60's schools NEVER closed, we had rear wheel drive cars (drove through many a major storm from NYC to Boston during those years). As you get older though you wonder how you did it!

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    1. What a storm this was! I am actually snowed in with no way to get out. Sounds like folks were much tougher in the old days. Good luck and hope you get power soon!

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  5. 1230 PM, and here we go -- now the feathers start to fly. Up to now, the roads in eastern Essex have melted all of the flakes. But from now on, looks like the fast-falling snow is going to over come the road warmth. Now it really begins. Jim G

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