Tuesday Pattern Update: Window of Opportunity 15th-25th, Will it Deliver?

Good morning. A critical period for this winter is approaching in my opinion. Based all all the long range signals from late December, mid month January onwards was supposed to deliver in terms of colder stormy weather in the east. We are now approaching this period and it is time to see what month nature really wants to do here. From the current look of things there is a window of opportunity from the 15th (this weekend) through next week for something to develop (25th). If this period comes and goes, then the whole rest of this winter becomes a wild card meaning it is anyone's guess on what happens. 

We have two systems to watch. A big front this weekend that low pressure will try to develop along on Friday into Saturday, then again towards middle of next week. 

So lets take a look...

The issue so far this month has been an active pacific jet and a flow that is too fast despite blocking in the atmosphere over Greenland. The Pacific rules all when it comes to weather these days seen below..

This pattern starts to break down this weekend as a ridge of high pressure forms out west and a big piece of energy/front dives in from the north...

The placement and tilt of this approaching energy will determine what happens next. Low pressure will try to develop along the boundary of warm and cold air on Friday...

In these situations, if you want this to really develop a storm you need to see the flow really tighten up...the trends have somewhat tried to do this...

This so far is a good start to deliver New England and the interior some snow, but you would have to see this trend even more to deliver closer to the coast...

The reason is you need to slow down and consolidate the storm energy enough so it is in time to tap all the cold air arriving behind it. As of now, I would peg this as mainly an interior snow event with the chance at some flakes closer to the coast Saturday morning. It is worth watching however as a system like this can surprise you. 

As this big front/system moves out this weekend, cold air in is in its wake...

Now this is where I would like to see things really start to happen, on the backside of this cold outbreak. Usually you see storms form on the front or backend of cold outbreaks. That takes us to next week below...

On the backside of the cold that is delivered over the weekend, what you see above are some ingredients that COULD produce a storm. By Monday shown above, we will have energy that is diving down towards the Gulf of Mexico. With a block or high pressure in place over Greenland, this energy will attempt to turn northeast and form a storm. HOWEVER, the ridge out west must stay sharp enough to allow amplification. If this ridge gets broken down by more pacific energy then this storm will develop offshore. I showed these two scenarios with the red arrows.

Right now models all show offshore solution...

That's fine for now as we have a lot of time to go. 

Bottom line: If this pattern is going to deliver, I would want to see something develop at one point by end of next week. If all of next week comes and goes, anything is possible, but I will be loosing confidence. It doesn't mean winter will be over or we cant have a very active cold and snowy period before the winters end, it just means the predictability is becoming extremely hard. This to me means the rest of the winter would then be a wildcard.