Saturday Update: Major Snowstorm to Impact The Area Sunday to Tuesday

 A long duration  major winter storm will impact the region from Sunday afternoon to Tuesday. Snow will overspread the area from southwest to northeast Sunday afternoon. As we enter Monday, the storm intensifies off the east coast causing heavy snow, wind, and signifigant accumulations. The storm will start to wind down by Tuesday morning. This has the potential to be the largest storm we have seen in a several years. I will have a video breakdown tonight at 7pm. 

Summary:

• Snow starts Sunday morning over Delmarva and Sunday evening over the northern Mid-Atlantic with light to moderate snow
• expect a few inches to accumulate in the overnight hours

• By Monday the storm will be transferring its energy to the coast and deepen rapidly
• Monday is the worst of this storm with heavy snowfall rates and winds
• Expect signifigant accumulations for most areas

• In terms of impact zones:
• Baltimore/Washington should see 4-8" with some mixing
• Philadelphia: 6-12"
• NYC 10-16"
• Boston: 6-12"
• South Jersey: 2-4" with rain at times

• Just to the NW of I-95 could see accumulations in excess of a foot with localized amounts of 24"

• The storm starts to tapper off Tuesday morning or afternoon

Here is my updated snowfall forecast. This will get updated one more time tomorrow morning to my final forecast:

As you can see, I expect heavy snow from this storm system. I also expect mixed precipitation as far north as Philadelphia which cuts down totals.

Models have trended north overnight as I speculated they would with my discussion yesterday. This falls in line with historical storm with similar setups.

Lets take a look at evolution. I am using the Nam model here because it is close enough. Blue is snow, pink is ice, green is rain.

Light to moderate snow spreads into the region Sunday afternoon to evening...

Expect a few inches to pile up with this front end snow but nothing major yet.

By Monday morning, this storm starts to transfer its energy to the coast and a low pressure system develops and deepens rapidly. This means heavy snow develops...

Notice the mixing over southern areas (pink and green). I do expect this  as the energy is being transferred to the coast. 

By Monday afternoon this thing really gets cranking with snowfall rates 1-2" per hour...

This intense snowfall goes through Monday night.

By Tuesday morning the storm is pivoting over New England and starting to tapper off in the NYC metro...

Now the exact details are not locked in yet on this storm. I expect there can still be more shifts to the placement of the heaviest snow bands. If anything this can still shift a little more NW. Tomorrow I will update the snow totals to hone in on who sees the jackpot zone with this which I think can be well over a foot somewhere in Poconos or even in NW NJ.

I will have a video out tonight at 7pm. Stay tuned.