Good morning. Yesterday's storm preformed to expectations. I know I mentioned in the morning I was not impressed with what was evolving so the final forecast update ended up working out quite well.
The main topic of discussion today will be the weather pattern over the next several weeks. Everything is aligning now where from week two of January onwards should feature decent shots at winter weather in the east.
Starting off, here was the final snow totals vs the forecast...
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Overall this actually worked out well. NE PA was the winner with this.
Moving on, we have an evolving weather pattern that will eventually support colder and active weather in the east. This is all due to a stratospheric warming event that has been occurring. When the stratosphere warms, it puts pressure on the Polar Vortex which in turn allows cold air to funnel south and the jet stream to potentially get blocked off. When the jets stream gets blocked off it means energy has a better chance of consolidating and forming storms with cold air available.
This is exactly what the models are advertising below as we approach mid Jan...
This is a textbook pattern for stormy weather along the east coast. In fact, it almost looks too perfect which makes me question what can go wrong. The last time we saw anything close to this was March 2018 and the winter of 2010.
Speaking of storms, we will have a few storm threats over the next several weeks. The first two will be this upcoming weekend and then again the following week. At this time I would favor next week over this weekend as the storm system being projected will probably stay south for the weekend. Again, its the second half of January where I think this really gets going. If we can squeeze a storm out of this before then that's a major plus.
Stay tuned. I will be taking a closer look at some of these storm threats this week.
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