Good morning. The potential winter storm system for early next week is gaining support from the major models but is not a lock yet. The target period is around Tuesday and right now I would give it a 50/50 chance of accumulating snow occurring over our region. If this storm ends up missing, there is another opportunity right behind it for later next week. For the winter of 2021, next week will be the week if the rubber ever wants to hit the road..
Ahead of the storm threat, a cold dry end of the week is on tap for most with mountain snows over the ski resorts of New England next few days as an upper level disturbance moves thorough..
We then have the energy for the potential storm approaching the area on Monday...
Notice it looks a little flatter. At the surface here is the difference with the storm...
Euro...
GFS...
GFS is more south due to the energy being a little more sheered off or flatter.
So here lies the forecast challenge. At this time I favor a blend of the two. If this storm does end up materializing I think its a Philadelphia to Southern New England impact zone on Tuesday I drew a rough sketch of this below...
Several inches would be possible.
On the flip side, I think the more south this storm trends the weaker it will become. That means if it doesn't hit my target zone areas like DC VA see snow but its not too heavy. This would be due to that energy being too sheered off and flat.
So in the next two days we can hone in on what happens here. If this opportunity misses we still have gas left in the tank for later in the week as a big block in the atmosphere (high pressure over Greenland) will aid in directing more energy towards our area into cold air...
This is the pattern change I have been discussing since early Jan. Now it needs to deliver.
Stay tuned.
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