Monday Update: Big Shifts North for Tomorrow, Late Week Storm Fizzles South

Summary:

• Quick burst of snow tonight for southern areas
• 0.5-2" max
• Changes to rain shortly after
• Some light snow makes it north into PA and NJ but that will change to ice by Tuesday.
• expect maybe up to an inch in some spots inland
• for NW NJ and NE pa temps should stay below freezing tomorrow so expect slick conditions as snow changes to freezing rain and sleet
• Main snow event has shifted north into New England
• expect general 2-4" with 3-6" in the mountains tomorrow
• Storm threat for later in the week will not happen and instead very cold air will move into the area by the end of the week
• Pattern stays active through next week but it doesn't seem to want to snow in the Mid-Atlantic this year

Good morning. Well, this so far has been one of the most frustrating winters I can ever remember forecasting. Patterns such as a -AO and -NAO that historically always render at least some snow in the Mid-Atlantic have produced nothing. This is despite the fact they have been in a favorable position for almost a month.  To add, models have shifted more drastically in 48 hour periods this year more than I have seen in last 10 years. I almost feel as if forecasting has become throwing darts. Despite everything, there is one simple rule I always go by. It snows where it wants to snow. Right now it does not want to snow in the Mid-Atlantic this year.

So where does that leave us for tonight into tomorrows storm system? Right now, expect a front end thump of some snow for the Balt/Wash region late tonight on the order of 1 to maybe 2 inches. The main storm then approaches Tuesday and has shifted way north. Looking like a general 2-4" for most of New England with 3-6" in the mountains. Mix of Snow, Ice and rain for areas in NNJ and PA south of I-80 corridor. I always mentioned this could shift north but I never imagined it could shift this much!

Lets take a look.

Thump of some snow late tonight as warm air attacks the cold air causing lift and snow to the south. This should be a quick burst of snow before changing over..

I say a general 0.5-2" max with this for those southern areas outside higher terrain of western MD and PA which can see more. This will also cause some initial snow in all areas of NJ and PA but that will fizzle out and will produce maybe 1" of snow there.  Regardless, there should be a short burst of snow tonight near Baltimore so enjoy it.

By tomorrow morning, the primary low moves through and this changes all that snow to rain to the south, slop in the middle, and snow to the north. I really like the projection from the NAM model below on this...

So again most areas south of I-80 very little snow from this tomorrow.

For New England I like a general 2-4" with this with 3-6" over the mountain areas.

Good projection from the GFS below...

Notice the light accumulations near Baltimore from front end burst.

This is over by tomorrow night and our storm threat later this week will stay south and be a non event.

Pattern stays active into next week but as I mentioned nothing seems to want to work out this year. Regardless I will keep following it. 

I will say very cold air is on tap for this weekend. So at least it will feel like winter.