Good morning. Been skiing so haven't been able to be as detailed as normal posts. Regardless, we got snow in the cards over the next week. I have discussed over the last several days how the first shot was Monday night through Tuesday. At this time it appears this snow threat is going to come to fruition but will be very light (not a surprise to me). At this time it appears a 1-3" are possible in many areas (see map below).
What could be even more exciting is the potential for then a possible very big storm around Thursday/Friday of next week. Details still unclear but this pattern change that we have been discussing is now really starting to show its teeth.
Lets take a look. At this time here is the best representation of what I think can happen Monday night through Tuesday in terms of snowfall amounts...
Going to have to hone in on this next few days but I think what the European ensemble model is showing above is a decent idea of what can occur. Money spot likely out in PA somewhere. Phili is right on the boarder line and DC i think maybe sees up to a half an inch.
Here is an updated model projection Monday night into Tuesday...
As you can see not a very strong system but some places should do ok with this on Tuesday.
Then things get very interesting for later in the week. We have an overall pattern in place that can support a big storm...
Bottom line what above is telling you in English is we have a weather pattern with the factors in place to lock in cold air and cause energy to amplify along the eastern seaboard. The block over Greenland its sister 50/50 low and ejecting energy from the west are key things you want to see.
Models show something big possibly developing by Thursday...
GFS
European...
We have to watch this very closely next few days as it by far best opportunity for major snow in the Mid-Atlantic this season so far. Doesn't mean it is going to happen, all i am saying is the best potential of the year is there.
Stay tuned.
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