Good morning. At this time it appears likely a winter storm will impact the area from Sunday night into Tuesday morning. The storm will feature two parts. A overrunning light to moderate period of snowfall Sunday night into Monday morning, then a more intense period of snow Monday into Tuesday as a coastal low takes over.
Recent model runs have shifted the threat more south which is in line with some historical similar storm setups. At this time it appears areas from Baltimore to Boston will see impacts from this with the greatest impacts in between those areas. There should be a sharp cutoff in snow to the north that I will discuss below.
Summary:
- Winter Storm on track to hit the area
- Timing is Sunday night to Tuesday morning
- Storm is projected to be at peak intensity Monday afternoon
- At this time models have shifted the storm more south which is in line with history
- Target area appears to be Baltimore to Boston
- There will be a sharp cutoff in snow amounts over northern CT or Mass
- I expect more shifts in the models next 24 hours.
- The map below is how I think this ends up shaking out when it is all said and done
- There are some scenarios where the storm is much further south
- Nothing is locked in at this time
- I will have an update out around 730 tonight to discuss any changes
Here is my first estimate of impacts from this storm:
As you can see I have the target area for biggest impacts just outside of Baltimore up to Hartford. I expect there will be a sharp cutoff somewhere over New England but Its hard to pinpoint at this time.
In terms of model projections, the American and Canadian models are similar to my forecast but the European model is very south of what I have. This could certainty end up happening, but I am using history to adjust my forecast.
Historically similar atmospheric setups have produced the most snow in the area of warm colors below...
The GFS and Canadian have impacts similar to this. The European on the other hand is way south...
This is certainty something that can happen, in which case my forecast is completely wrong, but I have seen this model do this before just to shift back north with these types of storms.
Here is the GFS model which I think is more in line...
Notice this storm features a one two punch. An initial period of overrunning snow Sunday night, then a coastal low takes over causing another more intense round of snow on Monday. There could be a lull in between where it doesn't do much Monday morning.
The reason the European model is very far south with this storm is due to the fact it is bringing a piece of energy south in the region highlighted below. This acts to squash the storm more south...
Other models are not as strong with this feature.
A lot is going to evolve over the next 24 hours and what I have is a good middle ground at this time. I do not want to make any bold calls yet.
Stay tuned for an update later tonight around 730.
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