Good morning. Today is the 15th which is the start of the 15th to 25th period I discussed in my last post for something to happen in terms of a winter storm. As of now we just wait. The recent trends look more cold and dry than cold and stormy but I am going to let this period play out. IF it comes and goes with nothing, the rest of this winter is a major wildcard imo. We have some great pattern signals that historically have not let me down. Could this year be a first? Time will tell.
Rain moves in tonight with snow in the mountains of interior New England...
This big front will bring colder air for the weekend after the rain moves through. For areas in Northern New England snow will continue over the weekend as the upper level low causes mountain effect snow. I expect areas like Stowe and Jay peak to get at least a foot from this with a little less in the southern mountains..
We then go into a colder pattern for next week. At this time the flow is too flat for any storms to develop...
As you can see above I outlined the northern jet stream which will deliver winter like temperatures but remain fast. When it is fast its hard for storm to develop. We need this to change.
Here is the frustrating part, we have a great pattern to the north over Greenland that we haven't seen in years! This negative NAO pattern usually aids in slowing the flow down meaning storms can develop into cold air. We just are not seeing that being projected at this time...
A big part of this is because there is too much of a trough or dip in the jet stream to our west so things do not amplify as easy.
Regardless, lets see what happens on the models next few days and if a storm wants to pop up. I am going to let this period play out and will reevaluate things afterwards.
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