8pm Video Update: Historic Long Duration Winter Storm Just Getting Started

Next update will be first thing in the morning along with live footage later in the day. Enjoy the video breakdown...

Sunday Update: Historic East Coast Storm to Slam the Region Today into Tuesday

My twitter feed @weatherwilly to the right of this page will have frequent updates throughout the storm along with blog updates.  Stay tuned!

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 A Historic East Coast Storm is approaching the area. Light to moderate snow will enter Balt/Wash and Philadelphia regions later this morning and work its way to the NYC metro by late afternoon/early evening. Snow will accumulate several inches overnight. As Monday gets underway, a rapidly deepening low pressure center will develop off the Delmarva Peninsula and slowly work its way northeast. As this occurs, snowfall will pick up to very high intensity throughout the day on Monday. By Monday afternoon, expect snowfall rates of 1-3" per hour in spots with blowing and drifting snow. Winds will be gusting up to 40mph. Snow continues into Tuesday morning before finally tapering off Tuesday afternoon. This will be an all time classic.

Summary and Timing Information:

• Snow starts to fall in the Baltimore and Philadelphia areas later this morning. Expect several inches to accumulate

• By later this afternoon, the snow is starting to make it to the NYC metro area
• By nightfall conditions start to deteriorate.

• The storm is a one two punch
• The first round is later today and overnight where moderate accumulations will occur
• The second round is the main event and will kick in by Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning where blizzard conditions are possible at times and heavy snowfall rates
• The may be a slight break in the snowfall between these two rounds on Monday morning

• When it is all said and done many areas will be measuring snow in feet with potentially isolated 30" amounts

• I will be updating frequently throughout the storm with a big update tonight

Buckle up folks, the storm is going to hit us this time. I mentioned the word historical because I think when this is all said and done this storm has the potential to be a top 10. I base this on the duration, snowfall amounts and size of the impact zone.

Here is my final snowfall forecast below:

Zoomed In NYC metro:

As you can see I upped my totals as models are converging on the high impact scenerio.

Our storm is currently approaching the area seen in on radar imagery...

 The first round of this system is the overrunning part and that is moving into the DC area now and will make it to NYC by later this afternoon...

Expect moderate accumulations across the whole region as this approaches.

By the time we get to tomorrow morning the coastal low is starting to develop and part two of the storm begins...

Mon Morning...

Monday afternoon..

Monday evening...

This is going to completely bomb out. The heaviest snow will occur where the intense banding sets up Monday. Most models place here below where you see the brown and white colors...

What you are looking at is warm moist air slamming into cold air. This causes tremendous lift in the atmosphere and intense snowfall rates. The peak period for this is Monday afternoon through the night. It is due to this that I have those amounts up to two feet. 

We are also going to see very high gusty winds by Monday afternoon as the snow is falling hard...

This will cause blizzard conditions at times.

By Tuesday morning, it is still snowing but will start to lighten up and end by the afternoon...

Stay tuned for more updates tonight as this storm gets underway. It is going to be a very interesting 48 hours.

Saturday Night Video Breakdown: Significant and Potential Historical Storm Sun-Tue

Short video below discusses my updated thoughts. Final update out tomorrow morning around 930am. This is going to be a big one folks.

Saturday Update: Major Snowstorm to Impact The Area Sunday to Tuesday

 A long duration  major winter storm will impact the region from Sunday afternoon to Tuesday. Snow will overspread the area from southwest to northeast Sunday afternoon. As we enter Monday, the storm intensifies off the east coast causing heavy snow, wind, and signifigant accumulations. The storm will start to wind down by Tuesday morning. This has the potential to be the largest storm we have seen in a several years. I will have a video breakdown tonight at 7pm. 

Summary:

• Snow starts Sunday morning over Delmarva and Sunday evening over the northern Mid-Atlantic with light to moderate snow
• expect a few inches to accumulate in the overnight hours

• By Monday the storm will be transferring its energy to the coast and deepen rapidly
• Monday is the worst of this storm with heavy snowfall rates and winds
• Expect signifigant accumulations for most areas

• In terms of impact zones:
• Baltimore/Washington should see 4-8" with some mixing
• Philadelphia: 6-12"
• NYC 10-16"
• Boston: 6-12"
• South Jersey: 2-4" with rain at times

• Just to the NW of I-95 could see accumulations in excess of a foot with localized amounts of 24"

• The storm starts to tapper off Tuesday morning or afternoon

Here is my updated snowfall forecast. This will get updated one more time tomorrow morning to my final forecast:

As you can see, I expect heavy snow from this storm system. I also expect mixed precipitation as far north as Philadelphia which cuts down totals.

Models have trended north overnight as I speculated they would with my discussion yesterday. This falls in line with historical storm with similar setups.

Lets take a look at evolution. I am using the Nam model here because it is close enough. Blue is snow, pink is ice, green is rain.

Light to moderate snow spreads into the region Sunday afternoon to evening...

Expect a few inches to pile up with this front end snow but nothing major yet.

By Monday morning, this storm starts to transfer its energy to the coast and a low pressure system develops and deepens rapidly. This means heavy snow develops...

Notice the mixing over southern areas (pink and green). I do expect this  as the energy is being transferred to the coast. 

By Monday afternoon this thing really gets cranking with snowfall rates 1-2" per hour...

This intense snowfall goes through Monday night.

By Tuesday morning the storm is pivoting over New England and starting to tapper off in the NYC metro...

Now the exact details are not locked in yet on this storm. I expect there can still be more shifts to the placement of the heaviest snow bands. If anything this can still shift a little more NW. Tomorrow I will update the snow totals to hone in on who sees the jackpot zone with this which I think can be well over a foot somewhere in Poconos or even in NW NJ.

I will have a video out tonight at 7pm. Stay tuned. 

Friday Night: Quick Video Rundown on Storm, Big Update in the AM

 

Friday Storm Update: Track Still Unclear, Going By History

Good  morning. At this time it appears likely a winter storm will impact the area from Sunday night into Tuesday morning. The storm will feature two parts. A overrunning light to moderate period of snowfall Sunday night into Monday morning, then a more intense period of snow Monday into Tuesday as a coastal low takes over.

Recent model runs have shifted the threat more south which is in line with some historical similar storm setups. At this time it appears areas from Baltimore to Boston will see impacts from this with the greatest impacts in between those areas. There should be a sharp cutoff in snow to the north that I will discuss below.

Summary:

• Winter Storm on track to hit the area
• Timing is Sunday night to Tuesday morning
• Storm is projected to be at peak intensity Monday afternoon

• At this time models have shifted the storm more south which is in line with history
• Target area appears to be Baltimore to Boston
• There will be a sharp cutoff in snow amounts over northern CT or Mass

• I expect more shifts in the models next 24 hours. 
• The map below is how I think this ends up shaking out when it is all said and done
• There are some scenarios where the storm is much further south
• Nothing is locked in at this time 

• I will have an update out around 730 tonight to discuss any changes

Here is my first estimate of impacts from this storm:

As you can see I have the target area for biggest impacts just outside of Baltimore up to Hartford. I expect there will be a sharp cutoff somewhere over New England but Its hard to pinpoint at this time. 

In terms of model projections,  the American and Canadian models are similar to my forecast but the European model is very south of what I have. This could certainty end up happening, but I am using history to adjust my forecast. 

Historically similar atmospheric setups have produced the most snow in the area of warm colors below...

The GFS and Canadian have impacts similar to this. The European on the other hand is way south...

This is certainty something that can happen, in which case my forecast is completely wrong, but I have seen this model do this before just to shift back north with these types of storms.

Here is the GFS model which I think is more in line...

Notice this storm features a one two punch. An initial period of overrunning snow Sunday night, then a coastal low takes over causing another more intense round of snow on Monday. There could be a lull in between where it doesn't do much Monday morning. 

The reason the European model is very far south with this storm is due to the fact it is bringing a piece of energy south in the region highlighted below. This acts to squash the storm more south...

Other models are not as strong with this feature.

A lot is going to evolve over the next 24 hours and what I have is a good middle ground at this time. I do not want to make any bold calls yet.

Stay tuned for an update later tonight around 730. 

9am Update on Tap

 Will make some adjustments and start to hone in on where I think this storm hits. 

Thursday: Eyeing Potential Significant Winter Storm Sunday-Tuesday

 Good morning. Confidence is increasing in a signifigant winter storm to impact the Northeast Sunday afternoon into Tuesday. A lot of details still need to be worked out but I have enough information to start to make an initial forecast. We will need to see how this evolves next few days. This winter certainty has thrown a lot of curve balls at the last second with storms, so we need to watch for shifts.

Summary:

• A signifigant winter storm moves into the area on Sunday afternoon with light snow.

• All indications are the storm starts to really get going on Monday featuring heavy snow for all areas along the I-95 northwest

• Storm should wind down by Tuesday at some point (details still unclear)

• In terms of impacts, as a ROUGH INITIAL ESTIMATE:
• I would expect light snow for all areas from Balt/Wash north to spread into the area Sunday
• As the storm then starts to intensify off the coast Monday I would expect snow to change to rain for areas south of Philadelphia and CNJ, a mix of snow and ice along the I-95 corridor and all snow NW of I-95
• Storm should stay all heavy snow NW of I-95 with potential for signifigant accumulations up to a foot or more

• Despite the fact the storm will be long duration, the biggest impacts usually always hit within a 12 hour period. This period appears to be at some point on Monday

• Things could still drastically shift with this forecast as we are still days away

Since this storm is going to get a lot of hype in the media I decided to give a very rough sketch of what my initial thoughts are on impacts below. This map is very preliminary so take it with a grain of salt...

 So lets take a look at some details...

Ahead of this storm we have bitter cold air moving into the area this weekend. Below are temps Sat morning. Grey is sub zero..

Dense cold air is always an ingredient you want to see ahead of a major storm. You also want a pattern that can help some of this cold air stay locked in. We will have that pattern with high pressure to the north being blocked in by a low pressure system off of eastern Canada. In English this means cold air will continue to get funneled into the area ahead and during this storm for many areas...

This is due to the atmosphere blocking off or trapping the storm due to high pressure over Canada and a low pressure system over coordinates 50/50...

You do not have to understand everything I just said but the bottom line here is the pattern in the atmosphere you are seeing above is a classic look for a major winter storm. This is because energy moving thorough the country gets clogged up along the east coast because the jet stream is blocking it for just flying out to sea. This allows it to intensify over our area. 

Similar historical atmospheric setups have produced signifigant snows in the area of warm colors below...

By the way, this storm energy I am discussing is currently is blasting the mountains of the west with feet of snow...

Models project this energy moves across the country and becomes blocked off along the east coast seen below valid Saturday through Monday...

Remember the reasons why I said this is able to just bomb off once it hits are area as seen above. That is key.

So what could go wrong here? 

On one side, if the blocking in the atmosphere ends up being too strong then this storm can move more south. That woudl mean less snow over New England and more in the Mid-Atlantic.

On the other side, we could end up seeing some last min shifts north which would cause more mixing to areas even up to NNJ and Southern New England and interior New England gets all the snow

I will keep an eye on this next few days. 

Stay tuned. Daily updates will be coming. 

Wednesday: Eyeing Big Storm Potential Sunday and Monday

 There are very strong signals for a big storm Sunday and Monday. All models showing an atmospheric setup that increases the chances for pacific storm energy to move into the Northeast and intensify into cold air. This is aided by blocking high pressure over Canada and ridging out west.

Despite the fact it has been tough over the last month to get a big storm, this signal is strong enough where it is worth discussing. I am going to let things play out today and will likely discuss in much more detail tomorrow morning if things continue to look strong/favorable.

Target peroid is Sunday through Monday for northern Mid-Atlantic and New England.

Bitter cold is ahead of this over the weekend with temps in the single digits and teens.

Stay tuned.

Tuesday Update: Winter Precipitation Incoming, Chance of Big Storm Sun & Mon

 Good morning. Our winter storm is approaching. Overall this will be a minor icing event for areas like NE PA and NNJ and a light to moderate snowstorm over New England.

Ice and some snow are approaching the area now as of 8am...

By around Noon, the Snow and Ice approaches NJ..

Up to an inch max in NW NJ and NE PA before it changes to Ice by mid afternoon...

By later this afternoon its all snow in most of New England with ice to the south. I expect a general 2-3" with higher amounts in the mountains...

Now back to NW NJ and NE PA for a second. The concern is even when the snow changes over to sleet and rain, it will still be below freezing at the surface seen below...

This is the concern for some light icing in areas like Morris, Sussex, Warren counties in NJ due to this. Blue is below freezing. I would stay off roads in those areas today.

Following this storm things get bitterly cold this weekend as a piece of the tropospheric polar vortex moves in...

Here are temperatures Saturday morning, grey is subzero..

We then need to watch for a big approaching winter storm on Sunday and Monday. My confidence is very low trying to predict this right now, but this one may be too big to ignore. Someone either in northern Mid Atlantic or New England is going to get hit hard with this. If this year had not been so frustrating so far, I would be very bullish on this storm threat, as it fits the pattern perfectly...

This kind of reminds me of one of the big storms we had in March of 2018. Stay tuned. I will be commenting more as this evolves. Could this be the storm that finally causes widespread winter weather? Hard for me to count on but we will see.

Monday Update: Big Shifts North for Tomorrow, Late Week Storm Fizzles South

Summary:

• Quick burst of snow tonight for southern areas
• 0.5-2" max
• Changes to rain shortly after
• Some light snow makes it north into PA and NJ but that will change to ice by Tuesday.
• expect maybe up to an inch in some spots inland
• for NW NJ and NE pa temps should stay below freezing tomorrow so expect slick conditions as snow changes to freezing rain and sleet
• Main snow event has shifted north into New England
• expect general 2-4" with 3-6" in the mountains tomorrow
• Storm threat for later in the week will not happen and instead very cold air will move into the area by the end of the week
• Pattern stays active through next week but it doesn't seem to want to snow in the Mid-Atlantic this year

Good morning. Well, this so far has been one of the most frustrating winters I can ever remember forecasting. Patterns such as a -AO and -NAO that historically always render at least some snow in the Mid-Atlantic have produced nothing. This is despite the fact they have been in a favorable position for almost a month.  To add, models have shifted more drastically in 48 hour periods this year more than I have seen in last 10 years. I almost feel as if forecasting has become throwing darts. Despite everything, there is one simple rule I always go by. It snows where it wants to snow. Right now it does not want to snow in the Mid-Atlantic this year.

So where does that leave us for tonight into tomorrows storm system? Right now, expect a front end thump of some snow for the Balt/Wash region late tonight on the order of 1 to maybe 2 inches. The main storm then approaches Tuesday and has shifted way north. Looking like a general 2-4" for most of New England with 3-6" in the mountains. Mix of Snow, Ice and rain for areas in NNJ and PA south of I-80 corridor. I always mentioned this could shift north but I never imagined it could shift this much!

Lets take a look.

Thump of some snow late tonight as warm air attacks the cold air causing lift and snow to the south. This should be a quick burst of snow before changing over..

I say a general 0.5-2" max with this for those southern areas outside higher terrain of western MD and PA which can see more. This will also cause some initial snow in all areas of NJ and PA but that will fizzle out and will produce maybe 1" of snow there.  Regardless, there should be a short burst of snow tonight near Baltimore so enjoy it.

By tomorrow morning, the primary low moves through and this changes all that snow to rain to the south, slop in the middle, and snow to the north. I really like the projection from the NAM model below on this...

So again most areas south of I-80 very little snow from this tomorrow.

For New England I like a general 2-4" with this with 3-6" over the mountain areas.

Good projection from the GFS below...

Notice the light accumulations near Baltimore from front end burst.

This is over by tomorrow night and our storm threat later this week will stay south and be a non event.

Pattern stays active into next week but as I mentioned nothing seems to want to work out this year. Regardless I will keep following it. 

I will say very cold air is on tap for this weekend. So at least it will feel like winter.

Just Got Home..Update Tomorrow AM

 Was In VT skiing. Will have updates tomorrow morning. Monday night into Tuesday system is very weak with 1-3" for some areas in NW NJ, PA and Southern New England. Bigger storm threat for later in week should stay south of northern Mid Atlantic with impacts more focused south of CNJ. 

Stay tuned

Saturday Update: Light Snow Event on Tuesday, Big Storm Potential to Follow

Good morning. Been skiing so haven't been able to be as detailed as normal posts. Regardless, we got snow in the cards over the next week. I have discussed over the last several days how the first shot was Monday night through Tuesday. At this time it appears this snow threat is going to come to fruition but will be very light (not a surprise to me). At this time it appears a 1-3" are possible in many areas (see map below).

What could be even more exciting is the potential for then a possible very big storm around Thursday/Friday of next week. Details still unclear but this pattern change that we have been discussing is now really starting to show its teeth.

Lets take a look. At this time here is the best representation of what I think can happen Monday night through Tuesday in terms of snowfall amounts...

Going to have to hone in on this next few days but I think what the European ensemble model is showing above is a decent idea of what can occur. Money spot likely out in PA somewhere. Phili is right on the boarder line and DC i think maybe sees up to a half an inch. 

Here is an updated model projection Monday night into Tuesday...

As you can see not a very strong system but some places should do ok with this on Tuesday.

Then things get very interesting for later in the week. We have an overall pattern in place that can support a big storm...

Bottom line what above is telling you in English is we have a weather pattern with the factors in place to lock in cold air and cause energy to amplify along the eastern seaboard. The block over Greenland its sister 50/50 low and ejecting energy from the west are key things you want to see.

Models show something big possibly developing by Thursday...

GFS 

European...

We have to watch this very closely next few days as it by far best opportunity for major snow in the Mid-Atlantic this season so far. Doesn't mean it is going to happen, all i am saying is the best potential of the year is there.

Stay tuned. 

Friday Update: Accumulating Snowfall Chances Increasing for Tuesday

 Good morning. I am currently up in northern VT on a ski trip but wanted to give a quick update on early next week. Tonight I will have a post with more detail.

Models are now trending to the more north solution I have discussed. The impacts would occur on Monday night into Tuesday where areas from Phili to Southern New England can see accumulating snow . To the south of that it will be rain. If this northern trend continues it could even bring mixing all the way up to CNJ. I will wait till this weekend to post any maps as I want to observe how things evolve with these shifts.

I will stick with this for now in terms of impact area for accumulating snow...

The new GFS is more north similar to the European...

Tonight I will go into detail but that is the gist of it for now.

Thursday Update: We are Now at a 50/50 Chance for Early Next Week's Storm

 Good morning. The potential winter storm system for early next week is gaining support from the major models but is not a lock yet. The target period is around Tuesday and right now I would give it a 50/50 chance of accumulating snow occurring over our region. If this storm ends up missing, there is another opportunity right behind it for later next week. For the winter of 2021, next week will be the week if the rubber ever wants to hit the road..

Ahead of the storm threat, a cold dry end of the week is on tap for most with mountain snows over the ski resorts of New England next few days as an upper level disturbance moves thorough..

We then have the energy for the potential storm approaching the area on Monday...

The image above is from the European model. The red swirls are upper level spin in the atmosphere which causes lift or precipitation to form. Notice how the European looks pretty amplified with this above.

The GFS is a little less sharp or amplified with this energy...

Notice it looks a little flatter. At the surface here is the difference with the storm...

Euro...

GFS...

GFS is more south due to the energy being a little more sheered off or flatter.

So here lies the forecast challenge. At this time I favor a blend of the two. If this storm does end up materializing I think its a Philadelphia to Southern New England impact zone on Tuesday I drew a rough sketch of this below...

Several inches would be possible. 

On the flip side, I think the more south this storm trends the weaker it will become. That means if it doesn't hit my target zone areas like DC VA see snow but its not too heavy. This would be due to that energy being too sheered off and flat.

So in the next two days we can hone in on what happens here. If this opportunity misses we still have gas left in the tank for later in the week as a big block in the atmosphere (high pressure over Greenland) will aid in directing more energy towards our area into cold air...

This is the pattern change I have been discussing since early Jan. Now it needs to deliver.

Stay tuned.