Sunday Storm Update: Initial Estimate of Snowfall Amounts

*MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY*

Good evening. We have what could be a potential blockbuster winter storm for some on Wednesday into Thursday.

I have enough information where I can make my first estimate of snowfall amounts . As always, I hope to not have to update this much but I will reevaluate it every 24 hours as new data comes in. 

My map below represents my ideas of what the storm will do and not any particular model. There are some models that show a much snowier solution further south than I have. That can happen but from what I am seeing I like the area I have for the heaviest snow. I will also note some models also show higher snow amounts than what you see below. Given we are 3 days away, I am not going to jump the gun on this yet.

For tomorrow, we also will have rain changing to snow  in areas of NW NJ, NE PA, and Southern New England. I expect 1-3" across the higher terrain with flakes flying elsewhere but not much accumulation. Regardless, don't be surprised if you see some accumulations tomorrow afternoon.

Here is my initial snowfall forecast for Wednesday into early Thursday:

 

Philadelphia is right on the edge with this one id go with 4-8". I may have to put them in the 1-3" band if this storm trends a little more north like I think it can. Balt/Washington also are in the 1-3" band. If I am wrong and the southern storm track wins, then you will see 6-12 in these areas.

The battle right now is how strong the high pressure to the north is and how far north this storm can come. Some models like the GFS do not agree with me and have the heaviest snow further south than what you see above. The reason I am not jumping on this is I think this storm pulls in some warm air from the ocean as it starts to transfer its energy off the coast. This means accumulations can be cut down for a period in areas like CNJ. Historical storms that are somewhat similar have done this. 

The European model is hinting at this...

The GFS model says I am wrong and it snows more south...

I think this will correct north with time.

For tomorrow, I am keeping my original forecast from yesterday...

That's all for now. I will have a pretty detailed update out tomorrow morning. Stay tuned, its going to be an exciting week!