Tuesday Storm Update: Major Storm on Track, Honing In On Final Details

*Major Winter Storm to Impact the Region late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning*

Good morning. Our major Winter Storm is on track to hit the area tomorrow into Thursday morning. Today is an important day as the final data points on the storm come in. I will be issuing my final forecast tonight at 7pm.

 Until then, I will give you an updated summary of what is expected to occur along with a new higher resolution snowfall map I made for the immediate tri state area. This map is based on my larger map I put out yesterday.

Summary:

• A Major Winter Storm is on track to hit the area

• The timing of the storm is tomorrow late afternoon into Thursday morning

• Expect the height of the storm to be overnight Wednesday
• During this time areas hardest hit will see snowfall rates of 1-3" per hour, winds gusting up to 35mph and blowing snow
• Blizzard conditions are possible

• Expect the storm to linger and start to taper off late Thursday morning

• Hardest hit areas in NW NJ, PA and Southern New England will see 12-18" from this storm with localized spots more

• The hardest forecast challenge at this time is determining how far north the mixing line/sleet gets with this system.
• At this time I think that mixing line makes it just up to the I-95 corridor
• This means snow changes to some sleet at times which will keep accumulations down
• Given the strength of the high pressure ahead of the storm I do not think the mixing makes it to the NYC Metro

• I will be working out this  detail today and including it in my final forecast tonight at 7pm

Here is my forecast issued yesterday along with a new map that zooms in on the immediate forecast area...

As you can see I zoomed in on the region to give everyone a better idea where the snow amounts will be placed. For areas in the light blue to pink I expect snow to change to some mixed precipitation. This will keep amounts lower.

You can see the core of the snow is to the northwest.

Latest models have a little bit of a spread in terms of how far north the mixing gets.

The NAM model is the most aggressive showing mixed precip making it to NNJ (orange)...

The GFS and European are further south and allow the cold air to hold on...

There is very strong high pressure ahead of this storm. Due to this I believe the NAM is overdoing the mixing making it all the way up to NNJ. Yes, the storm will have a lot of energy with it but from my experience models tend to underestimate the strength of these cold high pressure systems ahead. This is a key detail I will be studying today before I issue my final forecast. If I am wrong and the warm air does make it to NNJ, then I will need to shift snowfall amounts north.

Regardless, this whole storm comes down to who gets into what is expected to be a large band or area of heavy snow seen below...

This band will likely be where you see it above or slightly more north over southern New York state. It is very difficult to pinpoint this even 24 hours out. However, it is the folks who get in this snow band that will see over a foot of snow. Snowfall rates will be extremely intense under this area.

Why such heavy snow. Well, its due to warm moist air getting thrown into the cold air being supplied by our Canadian high pressure system as illustrated below...

Given the oceans are still pretty warm this storm has a wealth of moisture.

That's all for now. Stay tuned for my final forecast tonight at 7pm.