Tuesday: Weather Pattern Update

 Good morning. Hope everyone is having a good holiday week. I wanted to provide a quick update on our evolving weather pattern.

In short, we are currently under a regime of pacific air entering the weather pattern. This means normal to above normal temps with limited chances at any snowstorms next week or so. This pattern is forecasted to change by the second week of January as the stratosphere is currently forecasted to rapidly weaken. When this happens very cold and storm periods tend to follow 2 to 3 weeks after. That would be around week two of January onwards. We saw nothing like this develop during last years mild winter.

In the meantime, we will have a few storm systems to deal with. On New Years day a storm will approach from the west bringing rain and icy conditions from NNJ into New England. Some areas can see a minor ice storm from this. We then have a small chance of a snow event around January 4th. From there the pattern should start to then get more winter like.

Lets take a look below. I originally expected this pattern to happen quicker but the pacific pattern took me by surprise in the short term. 

Currently we have a pacific jet that is very very strong shooting mild air into the pattern as seen below...

This doesn't allow cold air to build in Canada and just sprays the continent with milder air. 

However way up in the atmosphere something very signifigant is happening. The stratosphere is currently warming and will do so rapidly next two weeks...

What you are seeing above is warm air working its way into the polar vortex over the north pole.  When this happens, it weakens the polar vortex and increases the chances that cold air doesn't stay locked up in Canada but instead can flow down into the United States. The lag is 2.5 to 3 weeks normally. This is a pretty signifigant event and although it is hard to predict exactly where the cold air will flow to, it is something that most memorable cold and stormy periods have had happen prior. We do not see this happen every year, in fact, last year it was the opposite.

By the second week of January the models are starting to show a pattern develop that you would expect to be caused by this...

High pressure over Greenland with the pacific backing off is a recipe for very cold and stormy weather as seen above. We do not know exactly when and if this will occur. But the chance is there and it will likely be by the 2nd week of January onwards. That high pressure over Greenland key as it will slow down the flow and allow cold air to eventually lock in ahead of storms.

In the meantime, there is not much snow to talk about heading into the New Year. More up and down weather. On New Years Day a storm will move into the region with freezing rain to the north and rain to the south. New Years Eve should be fine...

As our pattern transitions, there is a small chance of a winter system that can thread the needle and develop around the 4th...

This is not on all the models but the marginal chance is there. I will keep an eye on this next few days.

That's all for now. I will update again towards this weekend. The pattern I showed developing on this post is the exact opposite what we observed last winter. Be patient, I really do think this eventually can deliver.