Good morning and welcome to the first day of calendar winter.
We will have an interesting evolution of our weather pattern over the next two weeks. Things will start to gradually warm up this week ahead of a big frontal system that will sweep into the region on Christmas day. The bad news is the warm up and rain ahead of this front on Thursday will eat away most of the snowpack. The good news (if you like snow) is that this front brings in bitter arctic air and the period to follow is going to be very active due to high latitude blocking developing.
Starting off, on Christmas Eve our big front approaches...
A period of heavy rain and warm temps Christmas Eve will quickly transition to some mixed precipitation and very cold temps moving in on Christmas day and the period to follow. This will be a very impressive frontal system.
The period to follow can end up delivering our next storm system between Dec 28th and January 5th. I say this because we will have a very large block in the jet stream develop over Greenland. This is a key pattern to slow down energy and lock in cold and stormy weather in the east...
I illustrate this negative NAO pattern above. Nothing is guaranteed but this is exactly what you want to see for a storm to develop. We have not seen blocking like this in years this early in the season. We will be watching around the 28th then again towards New Years Day for a storm to develop.
Stay tuned.
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