Long Range Looking Winter Like

 I'll discuss this weekend but the pattern is finally starting to show signs of evolving as I discussed given the stratospheric warming. By 2nd week of January we will have alot of action on the table.

Also the storm system for Monday is still on track. Areas in higher elevations of NW NJ and inland can see accumulating snow.

More to come Friday night. I'm on a ski trip.

Tuesday: Weather Pattern Update

 Good morning. Hope everyone is having a good holiday week. I wanted to provide a quick update on our evolving weather pattern.

In short, we are currently under a regime of pacific air entering the weather pattern. This means normal to above normal temps with limited chances at any snowstorms next week or so. This pattern is forecasted to change by the second week of January as the stratosphere is currently forecasted to rapidly weaken. When this happens very cold and storm periods tend to follow 2 to 3 weeks after. That would be around week two of January onwards. We saw nothing like this develop during last years mild winter.

In the meantime, we will have a few storm systems to deal with. On New Years day a storm will approach from the west bringing rain and icy conditions from NNJ into New England. Some areas can see a minor ice storm from this. We then have a small chance of a snow event around January 4th. From there the pattern should start to then get more winter like.

Lets take a look below. I originally expected this pattern to happen quicker but the pacific pattern took me by surprise in the short term. 

Currently we have a pacific jet that is very very strong shooting mild air into the pattern as seen below...

This doesn't allow cold air to build in Canada and just sprays the continent with milder air. 

However way up in the atmosphere something very signifigant is happening. The stratosphere is currently warming and will do so rapidly next two weeks...

What you are seeing above is warm air working its way into the polar vortex over the north pole.  When this happens, it weakens the polar vortex and increases the chances that cold air doesn't stay locked up in Canada but instead can flow down into the United States. The lag is 2.5 to 3 weeks normally. This is a pretty signifigant event and although it is hard to predict exactly where the cold air will flow to, it is something that most memorable cold and stormy periods have had happen prior. We do not see this happen every year, in fact, last year it was the opposite.

By the second week of January the models are starting to show a pattern develop that you would expect to be caused by this...

High pressure over Greenland with the pacific backing off is a recipe for very cold and stormy weather as seen above. We do not know exactly when and if this will occur. But the chance is there and it will likely be by the 2nd week of January onwards. That high pressure over Greenland key as it will slow down the flow and allow cold air to eventually lock in ahead of storms.

In the meantime, there is not much snow to talk about heading into the New Year. More up and down weather. On New Years Day a storm will move into the region with freezing rain to the north and rain to the south. New Years Eve should be fine...

As our pattern transitions, there is a small chance of a winter system that can thread the needle and develop around the 4th...

This is not on all the models but the marginal chance is there. I will keep an eye on this next few days.

That's all for now. I will update again towards this weekend. The pattern I showed developing on this post is the exact opposite what we observed last winter. Be patient, I really do think this eventually can deliver. 

Thursday: Santa Will Be Battling High Winds and Rain Tonight

Good morning and merry Christmas Eve! Temperatures will be surging into the 50s and low 60s today ahead of a massive cold front that will move in late tonight. 

As this front approaches heavy rain moves into the area later today with a powerful squall line of storms late tonight. Winds will start to pick up tonight with a very intense peroid of winds expected as the line of storms moves through. Models indicate these winds could gust as high as 60mph in some spots. This makes power outages a concern for the region late tonight.

In the wake of this front, temperatures crash Christmas day into the 30s then 20s by nightfall. The peroid to follow then will be colder and Stormy.

Lets take a look..

Heavy rain moves in by later today and lasts through the night...

This will sadly wipe out the snowpack. Winds will also start to get very Gusty.

As the front approaches a line of intense thunderstorms moves in early tomorrow morning causing a Burst of very high winds. This will come in hard and fast. Below shows model projected wind gusts. If this verifies there will be some power outages. .

I think in a general sense many see winds gust up to 40mph with local areas seeing gusts up to 60mph. This is what can cause some power outages.

This all clears out by Christmas morning. Check out the temperature gradient behind this front!

Christmas day will be cold as this cold air moves in.

The peroid to follow then stays active. I will discuss this in another post this weekend. The pattern looks ripe for another winter type event by the New Year.

Merry Christmas!

Monday Weather Pattern Update: Christmas Through New Years Will Be Active

 Good morning and welcome to the first day of calendar winter. 

We will have an interesting evolution of our weather pattern over the next two weeks. Things will start to gradually warm up this week ahead of a big frontal system that will sweep into the region on Christmas day.  The bad news is the warm up and rain ahead of this front on Thursday will eat away most of the snowpack. The good news (if you like snow) is that this front brings in bitter arctic air and the period to follow is going to be very active due to high latitude blocking developing.

Starting off, on Christmas Eve our big front approaches...

A period of heavy rain and warm temps Christmas Eve will quickly transition to some mixed precipitation and very cold temps moving in on Christmas day and the period to follow. This will be a very impressive frontal system.

The period to follow can end up delivering our next storm system between Dec 28th and January 5th. I say this because we will have a very large block in the jet stream develop over Greenland. This is a key pattern to slow down energy and lock in cold and stormy weather in the east...

I illustrate this negative NAO pattern above. Nothing is guaranteed but this  is exactly what you want to see for a storm to develop. We have not seen blocking like this in years this early in the season. We will be watching around the 28th then again towards New Years Day for a storm to develop.

Stay tuned. 

Snowfall Verification

 Good afternoon. Most of the reports are in, so I compared my forecast to actual results. As you can see some areas did well but the main bust zone was over NNJ and NE PA. Also the highest snow band was not far enough into NY, VT and NH. Those are the two main errors. Its crazy we saw some totals over 40". In any event, factoring everything in this was a C forecast. I had it consistent for 48 hrs before but the errors in some areas take away some serious points especially when that's where most of this blogs viewers are from lol.

Thursday Morning Update: Snow Tappers of Later This Morning, Boom for Some, Bust in My Backyard

Good morning. Our winter storm is still cranking over many areas but will taper off as the morning progresses. Overall, there have been both some positive and negative surprises with this. The snowfall reports are still coming in, so his will get updated but below is an idea of where we stand right now. In NWJ which looks to be the "bust zone" (my backyard of course),I measured 9.2 inches and we may see up to another inch. There is a reason why this region in particular underperformed and I will explain in a post later tonight after all the reports come in. 

Looking above, the most impressive amounts are out in PA and especially the Albany region. In the Binghamton area in particular, over 3 feet of snow has been observed! We also have decent snow falling in southern VT. 

Again totals are not all in yet but compared to my map you can see what went well and what went wrong...

The 4-8" band and 8-12" band in PA and NJ and overall snow cutoffs did quite well from reports I'm seeing. This includes NYC metro which I see reports right in the range of 8-12" The biggest bust is NNJ where the average snowfall amounts will be  8-12" and not 12-18"

The 16-24 inch band over PA looks good but it needed to come al little further north towards Albany. Too early to call the Boston metro as it still will be snowing there next few hours. 

I will make he final tally's later but I give myself a C . It was good that I had a consistent forecast idea for a few days but the failure in NNJ takes a lot of points away.

Looking below you can see where the storm currently is located as of 715am...

Here is where it is expected at 10am...

1pm:

As you can see by the afternoon this is pretty much over in all regions.

Cold air follows in its wake and we return to an active weather pattern into the New Year. Our next shot at any substantial storm system looks to be between Christmas and New Years. Stay tuned for that.

That's all for now. I am going to go shovel my disappointing 9" of snow. I appreciate all the new followers last few days. I will have a summary of the final totals later tonight.

Wednesday: Final Forecast, Major Storm Incomming

Will be posting live updates to this post along with @weatherwilly on twitter. Stay tuned.

6pm Update: A Visit from The Original Weather Willy!

4pm Update: There She Blows

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

 *MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING*

Start time: Late afternoon today

End Time: Late Thursday morning

Height of the Storm: 9pm-6am

Overview:

A major winter storm is approaching the region. By late this afternoon light snow will start to overspread the area and pick up in intensity as the evening wears on. By later tonight, expect snowfall rates of 1-3" per hour, winds gusting up to 35 mph and temperatures in the low to mid 20's. Blizzard conditions are possible for some during this period. The storm tapers off late tomorrow morning. This will be the largest storm the region has seen in two years and the largest December storm in at least 10 years.

Discussion:

Good morning. We got that classic pre storm feel this morning with grey skies and very cold temps. This will be quite an interesting 24 hours. I will have a play by play breakdown as the storm starts to get underway tonight (around 8pm) and also some live coverage from my backyard as the snow piles up on this blog and on twitter @weatherwilly.

Below is my updated map. I made a few small adjustments but overall the idea is very consistent with what I put out on Monday:

Right now our storm system is starting to really spawn to out south. You can see the interaction of the northern and southern energy happening on the satellite imagery...

The radar shows the snow developing...

By the time we get to 7pm tonight a very powerful snow band will approach the area. Things will go downhill real fast during this time period with snowfall rates over an inch an hour...

This will be the period areas like Phili see a quick burst of snow before it changes to sleet.

By around 1am the storm is really cranking and snow continues to hit the region hard...

During this time winds will be gusting up to 40mph with blowing snow...

By daybreak tomorrow it is still snowing as the backend of the storm pivots through the area...

It will be interesting to see how these snow bands pivot and if they make it into NNJ.

Stay tuned, I will have more updates tonight. 

Working on Update: Should Be Out Around 830am

Tuesday Night Update: MAJOR WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK

 *MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION*

Starts Wednesday late afternoon/early evening

Ends Thursday morning after daybreak 

A major winter storm is on track to move into the region late tomorrow. Light snow will overspread the area by late afternoon and pick up in intensity as we get into the overnight hours  Snow will begin change to sleet along the I-95 corridor and plain rain in areas like southern NJ as we get into the early morning hours. To the north, things will stay mostly snow. At the height of the storm, snowfall rates could hit 1-3" per hour with winds gusting to 35mph causing blizzard conditions at times in the north. Snow then tapers off by late Thursday morning/early afternoon.

After looking at all the updated model data today, I decided to make no changes to my forecast. There is a heated debate in the weather community today on where this storm tracks. There are scenarios where this storm shifts more north bringing down totals across the whole area but I am not in that camp. Models tend to under estimate the strength of the cold air and from historical experience, I think the track I have makes sense  Anyone who lives north of I-78 should see a very powerful winter storm. If I end up being wrong I will be first to admit it.

In any event, here is the original forecast that I will update if necessary tomorrow morning...

The short video below takes an updated look on how I expect this to evolve:

Tuesday Storm Update: Major Storm on Track, Honing In On Final Details

*Major Winter Storm to Impact the Region late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning*

Good morning. Our major Winter Storm is on track to hit the area tomorrow into Thursday morning. Today is an important day as the final data points on the storm come in. I will be issuing my final forecast tonight at 7pm.

 Until then, I will give you an updated summary of what is expected to occur along with a new higher resolution snowfall map I made for the immediate tri state area. This map is based on my larger map I put out yesterday.

Summary:

• A Major Winter Storm is on track to hit the area

• The timing of the storm is tomorrow late afternoon into Thursday morning

• Expect the height of the storm to be overnight Wednesday
• During this time areas hardest hit will see snowfall rates of 1-3" per hour, winds gusting up to 35mph and blowing snow
• Blizzard conditions are possible

• Expect the storm to linger and start to taper off late Thursday morning

• Hardest hit areas in NW NJ, PA and Southern New England will see 12-18" from this storm with localized spots more

• The hardest forecast challenge at this time is determining how far north the mixing line/sleet gets with this system.
• At this time I think that mixing line makes it just up to the I-95 corridor
• This means snow changes to some sleet at times which will keep accumulations down
• Given the strength of the high pressure ahead of the storm I do not think the mixing makes it to the NYC Metro

• I will be working out this  detail today and including it in my final forecast tonight at 7pm

Here is my forecast issued yesterday along with a new map that zooms in on the immediate forecast area...

As you can see I zoomed in on the region to give everyone a better idea where the snow amounts will be placed. For areas in the light blue to pink I expect snow to change to some mixed precipitation. This will keep amounts lower.

You can see the core of the snow is to the northwest.

Latest models have a little bit of a spread in terms of how far north the mixing gets.

The NAM model is the most aggressive showing mixed precip making it to NNJ (orange)...

The GFS and European are further south and allow the cold air to hold on...

There is very strong high pressure ahead of this storm. Due to this I believe the NAM is overdoing the mixing making it all the way up to NNJ. Yes, the storm will have a lot of energy with it but from my experience models tend to underestimate the strength of these cold high pressure systems ahead. This is a key detail I will be studying today before I issue my final forecast. If I am wrong and the warm air does make it to NNJ, then I will need to shift snowfall amounts north.

Regardless, this whole storm comes down to who gets into what is expected to be a large band or area of heavy snow seen below...

This band will likely be where you see it above or slightly more north over southern New York state. It is very difficult to pinpoint this even 24 hours out. However, it is the folks who get in this snow band that will see over a foot of snow. Snowfall rates will be extremely intense under this area.

Why such heavy snow. Well, its due to warm moist air getting thrown into the cold air being supplied by our Canadian high pressure system as illustrated below...

Given the oceans are still pretty warm this storm has a wealth of moisture.

That's all for now. Stay tuned for my final forecast tonight at 7pm.

Monday Night Video Update: Forecast on Track, Few Small Tweaks

Good evening. Tomorrow is a big day as some key data on the storm will be coming in and I will be issuing my final forecast by the nighttime. Regardless, this will be a very big storm and pack quite the punch over a 8 hour period Wednesday night.

In the short video below I take you through the play by play. I use the European model in the video because  it is the closest to what my forecast idea for this storm is. 

I also attached my snowfall map from this morning that I made a few adjustments to. You will notice I added some city forecasts. See you tomorrow. 

Monday Storm Update: Major Winter Storm on Track for Wednesday

*Very Powerful Winter Storm to Impact Region Wednesday*

Good morning. I made a few small tweaks to my snowfall map from last night. I wanted to hone in more on the I-95 corridor as that will be the hardest area to forecast with this storm. I will have an evening update at 7pm.

Summary:

• A Major and potential blockbuster Winter Storm will impact the region Wednesday morning to Thursday morning
• Snow starts south to north Wednesday morning into early afternoon
• Snow ends Thursday morning after daybreak

• The height of this storm is Wednesday night
• Expect very strong winds, blowing snow and snowfall rates possibly over 2" per hour
• Temperatures in northern areas will also stay in the low 20's through the duration of this event
• Blizzard conditions will be possible in hardest hit spots

• Along the I-95 corridor expect snow to mix in with sleet and potentially some rain especially to the south as the storm pulls in some warm air
• This will cut down accumulations in areas like Baltimore/Washington and even as far north as Philadelphia
• My map below reflects this

• To the NW of I-95 this is the sweet spot for this storm where things will stay all snow for most

• When it is all said and done many areas will receive over a foot of snow with some localized areas approaching 2 feet.

Here is my updated forecast:

Here is a modeled animation of the storm from the European model...

I actually think this is a good track with maybe a slight nudge more north when it is all said and done.

The GFS model below is more south and would mean the areas like Philadelphia get in on heavy snow. I think this is wrong at this time and we will see it adjust north.

This storm is a fine line between strong high pressure to the north and a powerful storm to the south. I am basing my forecast on what normally happens historically in these situations.

Stay tuned. Will have a big update tonight at 7pm.

Sunday Storm Update: Initial Estimate of Snowfall Amounts

*MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY*

Good evening. We have what could be a potential blockbuster winter storm for some on Wednesday into Thursday.

I have enough information where I can make my first estimate of snowfall amounts . As always, I hope to not have to update this much but I will reevaluate it every 24 hours as new data comes in. 

My map below represents my ideas of what the storm will do and not any particular model. There are some models that show a much snowier solution further south than I have. That can happen but from what I am seeing I like the area I have for the heaviest snow. I will also note some models also show higher snow amounts than what you see below. Given we are 3 days away, I am not going to jump the gun on this yet.

For tomorrow, we also will have rain changing to snow  in areas of NW NJ, NE PA, and Southern New England. I expect 1-3" across the higher terrain with flakes flying elsewhere but not much accumulation. Regardless, don't be surprised if you see some accumulations tomorrow afternoon.

Here is my initial snowfall forecast for Wednesday into early Thursday:

 

Philadelphia is right on the edge with this one id go with 4-8". I may have to put them in the 1-3" band if this storm trends a little more north like I think it can. Balt/Washington also are in the 1-3" band. If I am wrong and the southern storm track wins, then you will see 6-12 in these areas.

The battle right now is how strong the high pressure to the north is and how far north this storm can come. Some models like the GFS do not agree with me and have the heaviest snow further south than what you see above. The reason I am not jumping on this is I think this storm pulls in some warm air from the ocean as it starts to transfer its energy off the coast. This means accumulations can be cut down for a period in areas like CNJ. Historical storms that are somewhat similar have done this. 

The European model is hinting at this...

The GFS model says I am wrong and it snows more south...

I think this will correct north with time.

For tomorrow, I am keeping my original forecast from yesterday...

That's all for now. I will have a pretty detailed update out tomorrow morning. Stay tuned, its going to be an exciting week!

Sunday Morning: Major Winter Storm on Wednesday on Track, Update 6pm Tonight

 Good morning. As of now I have no changes to the ideas I outlined in my post and video yesterday for Wednesdays storm. Everything appears to be on track for a Major Winter Storm to hit the region Wednesday into early Thursday. 

Tonight I will update my initial  map below to include my first estimate at snow accumulations. If everything stays consistent you will see the hardest hit region on my map below likely in the 8 to 14" range as a start. I will also provide some more context to areas on the edges of potential snowfall like Balt/Wash and how I think things can evolve there. 

For Monday's smaller storm, I still like my idea of 1-3" for areas in NW NJ, NE PA and Southern New England in elevated locations. 

Please check out yesterday's post if you missed anything. I will have my next update out by 6pm tonight and will be commenting on twitter today @weatherwilly. 

Saturday: Major Winter Storm Gaining Traction for Wednesday, Light Snow Monday

*Major Winter Storm to Potentially Impact the Region on Wednesday*

<<<<<<Update- 5PM Video Discussion, see below:>>>>>>

Good morning. A lot to talk about today as I am starting to hone in on a potential major winter storm for Wednesday into Thursday. I also am watching a smaller snow threat for areas to the NW on Monday.

Summary:

• Mild conditions this weekend transition to stormy conditions Monday as a cold front approaches the region
• Low pressure will develop along this front and  snow can breakout in areas like NW NJ, southern NE and NE PA on Monday.
• This is not the main storm threat but we can see a few inches in areas to the NW

• Very cold air then moves into the area on Tuesday ahead of a approaching large storm system

• This storm system will approach the region on Wednesday and has the potential to be a Major Winter Storm for many across the region through Thursday
• Best probability at this time for accumulating snowfall would be central NJ into Southern New England
• Without going into specifics this is the storm that has potential to deliver 12"+ to some

• This storm is by no means locked in but it is the strongest signal I have seen in a few years.
• Confidence is moderate at this time
• By Sunday night we should be able to get more specific on impacts

So as you can see, confidence is starting to increase. Every major model suite is now showing the chance of a signifigant winter storm. A word of caution, there is still a possibility the storm can trend weaker than currently modeled. This is why I will be cautious and not go into detailed accumulations till Sunday night.

In any event, I need to show you something so here are my impact maps for Monday's potential light snow event and the main event on Wednesday...

As you can see two systems to deal with here.

The Monday system will not have a lot of cold air to work with so if the precipitation aligns perfectly along the front, the higher elevations of NW NJ, NE PA, and southern New England can see a few inches of snow. I would not expect much snow elsewhere.

Here is a model projections for Monday...

Again, if this aligns perfectly we can see snow breakout but I would not expect much accumulation in any lower elevation areas despite what you see above.

Moving on, very cold air then moves in on Tuesday night ahead of the main storm system...

This is quite exciting as true cold air is an essential ingredient to a major storm system. I will note that Monday's storm trending stronger helps reinforce this cold air in its wake. It is all connected!

The reason we have this cold air arriving and locked in is due to the upper level pattern I have been discussing last few days which will lock in high pressure (the source of the cold air) seen below...

Again this is a classic look for a big storm and at the surface the models are responding. The loop below is the gfs ensemble model. I cherry picked this model because it closes represents my current thinking on how this storm evolves...

As you can see an amped up major storm system is being show on the models. If this came to fruition it would be largest winter storm for the region in two years and the largest December storm in many years.

So what would need to occur for this storm not to materialize?

At this time my focus would be on the big disturbance that will be seeding this storm seen below. The other parts of the upper air pattern I think are going to stay pretty stable which means if this storm fizzled out it would be due to the energy you see below getting strung out and not consolidating enough...

The less concentrated the energy is, the less likely a larger storm would develop. It still would be likely we see some impact however even in the "bust" case. Not my forecast at this time.

So there you go. Stay tuned I will be updating frequently on this blog and on twitter @weatherwilly.

Friday Update: Next Week Storm Potential Very Alive

Good morning. I encourage you to read my post from yesterday as I break down the major factors I am looking at that would support a winter storm for the region middle of next week (Wednesday).

Given we are still several days away I do not need to get caught up in the finer details yet. For now, just know the pattern is very ripe for storm development middle of next week and cold air will be in place. If I had to guess I would say this is a I-95 north type storm meaning if it did occur areas like Balt/Wash and Phili wouldn't see much snow. 

The next 48 hours are key as we will be able to see if those key variables I highlighted yesterday are coming in alignment. If they trend the wrong way then we are left with cold and dry conditions.

I will also mention, there is a wave of low pressure that will move towards the region from the SW along a front on Monday. At this time models show it south of the area but there is a chance some  snow makes it further north in areas like NNJ into southern New England. This would not be anything substantial but it bears watching....

Its in the wake of this that the cold air is established ahead of our main storm threat. Notice the cold high in place that is funneling cold air into the region. The factors I discussed yesterday, if in proper alignment, would lock this cold high in ahead of our main storm threat for Wednesday...

Stay tuned. I will be updating daily.