Thursday: Inland Snow Tonight, Storm Next Week has Issues

Good morning. Most areas will deal with a cold rain today (starting in the afternoon) with a few inches of accumulating snow in the mountains of New England. There is the chance that the first flakes of the season fall for areas in NW, NJ,  NW CT and NE PA on the back end of this late tonight. Nothing that accumulates but regardless do not be surprised if you see a little snow if you live at a high elevation in those areas.

Cold then arrives this weekend. It will be hat and gloves weather Saturday with some moderation Sunday.

We then focus on the next storm threat for Tuesday and Wednesday. I will say at this time I am not very bullish on the chances for anything signifigant for areas near the coasts. In fact, I am not that bullish on a big storm in general based on latest data. I think we will be dealing with eaither an inland wave of low pressure or an offshore dud. In both scenarios the I-95 doesn't see much winter weather. With a lack of atmospheric blocking in place, this storm all comes down to timing of the northern and southern jet stream interaction. 

At this time if I had to pick one model it would be the GFS....

Although what you see above is unlikely the final solution, what it does show is a frontal wave with inland snow with maybe the chance for some snow on the back end for the I-95 Wednesday morning.

The reality is even though cold air is on tap for this storm we do not have the blocking setup in the atmosphere I usually look for. In English this means there in no mechanism to lock in the cold air for this storm.  The only way to see consistent snow for the I-95 is perfect timing between the northern and southern branch of the jet stream. Can it happen? Sure, but very hard to bet on that.

The Canadian model shows that scenario...

At this time I would not bet on that. 

My first guess is inland snow Tuesday with the chance of flakes Wednesday morning for areas closer to the coast.


The model ensembles are not helping at all showing a massive spread of potential low pressure placements...

All this tells me is this storm is nothing but pure timing of northern and southern jet stream energy due to a lack of blocking in the atmosphere.

This will be a tough one to forecast. All options are on the table but I am not betting on anything signifigant at this time.

Oh and by the way, record breaking November cold follows this storm threat. Hat and gloves weather for the rest of next week!

More to come.