Tuesday Pattern Update: Some Positives & Some Negatives= Seasonable

Good morning. As we enter the next two weeks I am seeing a mixed bag of information regarding our weather pattern. On one hand, we will have high pressure over Greenland or a -NAO pattern develop. This is very encouraging as if this holds through winter things can really get wild. On the other hand however, we have a pacific pattern that does not look great. What I mean by that is the jet stream will allow warmer pacific air to enter the pattern next 2 weeks. If you sum the two components together I am led to believe it means seasonable conditions for our forecast area through the end of November. For Thanksgiving week a big storm system likely develops accross the central US around the middle of the week causing mild conditions along the east coast till the weekend. December than starts off seasonable. I think winter gets going 2nd half of December this year. 

If there is room for a surprise in this pattern it will be early next week...

Although this doesn't look great to produce a storm along hte eastern seaboard (positive trough) things could change and this may spin up some type of storm system early next week along the east coast. 

As we look at Thanksgiving week overall, here is the pattern to expect...

We have a great pattern over Greenland as mentioned, but the high pressure off the west coast is too far west. This means the colder and stormy weather moves to  the central part of the country. There will likely be a big storm around the middle of next week in that region which is not good for travel...

This will bring a surge of mild air to the east coast Wednesday and Thanksgiving day with a cold front moving through by Thanksgiving weekend with some unsettled weather.


We then look to see how early December shapes up. I am not worried about seeing no winter weather on the east coast in November. Its very rare. However, once December hits then we are in the core of winter season and we need to see if we can hold the right pattern.  Given the fact I think that -NAO pattern sticks around a few weeks I do not expect any major mild surges. With that being said winter may wait till 2nd half of December to get started this year. 


On another note, there are clues emerging that we will see stratospheric warming develop 1st half of December. I will go into more detail on what this means in a future post.