Saturday Morning Storm Update: Tricky Forecast

Good morning. Here is my updated forecast for Sunday through Monday.  Usual 7pm Video update tonight as this storm evolves. 

Summary:

• Winter storm on track to impact the region with a mix of rain, ice, and heavy snow
• For Purple Zone:
• A heavy long duration snowfall event is to be expected with over a foot of snow in many spots
• For the Dark Blue Zone:
• Sleet and freezing rain moves in by mid morning Sunday for areas in NW NJ, NE PA, CT
• The ice changes to snow by late Sunday night/Early Monday morning
• Several inches of snow can pile up Monday morning
• For Light Blue Zone:
• Some sleet to start Sunday morning but a transition to rain
• Rain changes to snow on Monday morning giving this region a quick few inches
• For Green Zone:
• All rain maybe a few flakes by Monday afternoon, coating in some spots possible

So this continues to be a challenging forecast for the fringe areas of this storm (dark blue). I discussed in my video last night how NNJ and NE PA are in the wildcard zone for this storm. This is because we still need to see how this backend snow band evolves.

Latest models do indicate we see this band get just into NE PA and NNJ by Monday Morning. Below is the latest European model from Sunday morning to Monday night...

Notice the pivot of the storm at the end to throw that band back into the area. This is the detail that will still be moving around on models. IF this stays more north then snowfall amounts are cut down significantly across NJ and PA. If we get a shift south, then we get more heavy snow over NNJ. It will all come down to the placement of the upper level low....

If this feature at 18000 ft ends up being a little tighter and further south, the snowfall will shift south. If it  ends up more north the snow shifts more north. Models will be wobbling around with this feature through tomorrow. That makes pinpointing snowfall within 50 miles extremely difficult

I said it yesterday and I will say it again, this storm will be surprising us through tomorrow morning with updated model projections moving these features around.

Stay tuned for evening update.