Monday: Cold Air and Winter Potential Next 10 Days

Good morning. All you need to do is go outside and you will realize winter is in the air over our region. Temperatures are currently in the high 20's to low 30's. Expect a little moderation this week but as we approach the weekend we have storm potential to track both end of this week and early next week.

Summary:

• Very cold temps this morning give way to a moderation as we progress through the 1st half of the week
• expect highs in the mid to upper 50s
• As we approach Thursday night there is the potential for a winter storm to impact the interior (NW I-95, mainly New England)
• accumulating snow is possible especially in New England Thursday night into Friday
• Higher elevations of NW NJ also can see some flakes
• A bitterly cold air mass this arrives for the weekend
• Highs will be in the 30's Sat and Sunday and 20's at night!
• More action on the table next week as the pattern stays cold and active

So lets dive into details...

We are currently in a very impressive weather pattern for early November. A big ridge in the jet stream out west is blocking any mild pacific air from entering the country. Instead we have direct injections from Canada...

This pattern is looking to stick around for at least the 1st half of November. This means there is enough cold air for winter weather potential despite what the calendar says.


As we approach Thursday night a piece of energy from the SW is going to be moving into our area. If the configuration of the jet stream aligns properly this can cause snow to break out Thursday night for many areas....

The above image is the European model valid late Thursday night which I think has been handling this the best. Not a big storm but a wave of low pressure that can pile up some moderate accumulations across the interior.

The European ensemble mean gives the best idea of where the accumulating snow 
CAN occur...

If this pans out, areas of NW NJ above 800ft will also see some flakes fly. Other areas close to coast is rain.

Now of course this isnt a lock.

The GFS model has not been as bullish and has a flat wave with no storm...

I explained on twitter yesterday I think this is wrong due to how the GFS is handling the upper air energy...

It is too fast and flat with the northern disturbance as shown above which squashes the storm. A common error with this model and I believe it starts to correct closer the European.

Here is the area I would be focused on for this..

We will keep an eye on this. 

In the wake we have bitterly cold air that arrives for the weekend...

Highs this weekend will likely feel like mid December in the 30's with lows at night in the lower 20s!

We then have more potential mischief next week....

I will wait to comment on this, but the pattern is very loaded right now. I would be surprised if we do not see at least 1 storm from all of this next 2 weeks.

Stay tuned more to come.